Survey of Consumer Expectations - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

Center for Microeconomic Data

 
SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
January Survey: Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Are Unchanged at Short and Medium Term
  • Median inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0 percent at both the one- and three-year-ahead horizons in January. Median five-year-ahead inflation expectations rose by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) to 3.0 percent.
  • Year-ahead commodity price expectations rose across the board in January, increasing to 2.6 percent for the price of gas (+0.6 ppt), to 4.6 percent for the price of food (+0.6 ppt), to 6.8 percent for the cost of medical care (+1.0 ppt), to 5.9 percent for the cost of college (+0.2 ppt), and to 6.0 percent for rent (+0.5 ppt).
  • The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increased by 2.3 ppt to 14.2 percent in January, while the mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months also increased to 51.5 percent (+1.3 ppt).
  • Median household spending growth expectations declined by 0.4 ppt to 4.4 percent, its lowest reading since January 2021.



For more details:
Press Release: Inflation Expectations Stable; Household Spending Growth Expectations Decline

inflation

Inflation expectations
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labor market

Earnings growth expectations
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household finance

Expectations of higher interest rate on savings accounts
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Fielding the Survey
The SCE is a nationally representative, Internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to twelve months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, our panel enables us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time.
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