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Dear Colleague,

In today's edition, we highlight:

• Stronger dollar and emerging markets
• Managing director at G20
• Crypto regulation to protect economies
• Senegal's growth prospects
• Nigeria's eNaira

EXTERNAL SECTOR

Emerging Market Economies Bear the Brunt of a Stronger Dollar

(Credit: Dilok-Klaisataporn/iStock by Getty Images)

The US dollar’s strengthening last year to a 20-year high had major implications for the global economy, IMF researchers Rudolfs Bems and Racha Moussa write in a blog based on the latest External Sector Report.

The authors say that negative spillovers from US dollar appreciation fall disproportionately on emerging market economies when compared with smaller advanced economies.

In emerging market economies, a 10 percent US dollar appreciation, linked to global financial market forces, decreases economic output by 1.9 percent after one year, and this drag lingers for two and a half years.

By contrast, the negative effects in advanced economies are considerably smaller in size, peaking at 0.6 percent after one quarter and are largely gone in a year.

“Flexible exchange rates and anchored inflation expectations can alleviate the effects of a strong dollar,” the authors say.

The IMF’s Jaewoo Lee explored the report’s findings with Mark Sobel of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum and Danny Quah of the National University in a discussion moderated by Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schonberger. Watch here.

MANAGING DIRECTOR AT G20

Georgieva Calls for Stronger Global Financial Safety Net

(Credit: IMF Photo/Kim Haughton)

The IMF’s managing director has called on Group of Twenty leaders to move the world economy onto a more vibrant medium-term path and strengthen the global financial safety net.

In a statement at the conclusion of a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in India, Kristalina Georgieva said advanced and strong emerging-market economies have more than $10 trillion in international reserves, but the rest of the world relies on pooled resources of international institutions, including the IMF.

“To protect the most vulnerable countries and their people, we need to strengthen the global financial safety net.”

 Since the second world war, the global economy has expanded by more than 10 times in real terms. Average global life expectancy in 1950 was just about 45 years.

But Georgieva said resilience to shocks is not distributed evenly and some countries are in better position to protect their people than others.

“With domestic policy actions to durably brighten growth prospects and international action to support the most vulnerable members of our global community, we can achieve a more vibrant and inclusive future.”

Read the managing director’s pre-meeting blog, and watch her interviews with Bloomberg about global debt relief and China’s growth, and with NDTV about how digitalization is boosting India's economy.

CRYPTO ASSETS

Crypto Needs Comprehensive Policies to Protect Economies and Investors

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The global push for clearer policies on crypto assets has gained momentum under India’s presidency of the G20. As this work continues, it’s important to recognize the progress already achieved, but more is needed, especially in implementing global standards, the IMF’s Financial Counsellor writes in a blog.

Last year’s failures of the FTX crypto trading platform and the Terra Luna stablecoin highlighted the urgency of establishing clear policies to protect investors and prevent abuse, Tobias Adrian writes with co-authors Dong He, Arif Ismail and Marina Moretti.

“Without robust safeguards, the increased risk of fraud and misconduct could adversely impact investors’ expected returns,” they say.

AFRICA PERSPECTIVES

Macroeconomic resilience

Atif Mian, Professor of Economics, Public Policy, and Finance at Princeton University, speak to IMF African Department Director Abebe Aemro Selassie about the nexus between finance and macroeconomics in Africa. Watch previous episodes of Africa Perspectives panel discussions here.

SENEGAL

Strong Growth Prospects

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After slowing to 4.7 percent in 2022, growth in Senegal is projected to rebound to over 5.3 percent this year, due in part to an emerging oil and gas industry. This makes Senegal one of the strongest growing economies in sub-Saharan Africa.

The country faces challenges, however, including spillovers from the war in Ukraine, tighter financing conditions and increased political instability in the region. A widening fiscal deficit and increasing government debt are two major concerns.

In an interview with Country Focus, Edward Gemayel, IMF Mission Chief for Senegal, talks about the economic outlook for the country, and key pillars of the recently approved programs under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility, the Extended Credit Facility and the Resilience and Sustainability Trust.

CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

How To Accelerate Economic Growth

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Structural reforms can lift output in the Caucasus and Central Asia by 5-7 percent in the next 4 to 6 years, the IMF’s Nick Gigineishvili writes in an article for Country Focus.

Governance reforms, including state-owned enterprise reforms, will yield the largest output gains for the region—nearly 6 percent. This is followed by labor market reforms, easing of external finance and trade restrictions, and liberalizing product and financial markets.

Countries with better governance tend to derive greater growth dividends from other reforms, Gigineishvili says.

Nigeria’s eNaira was the first Central Bank Digital Currency in Africa and only the second in the world when it launched in October 2021, but a growing number of countries across the globe are now planning to follow suit with their own CBDCs. What can they learn from Nigeria’s experience? In this podcast, IMF economist Jookyung Ree says the eNaira will need to complement mobile money systems to convince more Nigerians to use it.

Weekly Roundup

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Gopinath Calls for Careful Regulation

Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s First Deputy Managing Director, spoke to the Times of India about artificial intelligence, global inflation and economic growth on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Gandhinagar. “We have to be careful about making sure generative AI is used for the benefit of humanity,” she told the paper. Read the interview here.

EURO AREA

Challenging Outlook

The euro-area economy has shown resilience in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the largest terms of trade shock in several decades, thanks to a swift policy response and a strong rebound in contact-intensive services, the IMF said on Wednesday. But, in a statement after the conclusion of Article IV consultations with the IMF’s Executive Board, the Fund said that economic activity weakened significantly in the second half of 2022 and the bloc slipped into a mild technical recession in early 2023. Read more about the outlook in the latest staff report.

INDIA

Progress on Poverty

India has made significant strides in reducing poverty in recent decades, but the economic slowdown associated with COVID-19 temporarily increased poverty and inequality, IMF economist estimate in a staff paper. The government’s expansion of food subsidies likely played a significant role in mitigating the increase in poverty during the pandemic, the authors say in the paper, which uses microdata from household and labor-force surveys to explain the drivers of poverty and inequality during the pandemic.

Thank you again very much for your interest in the Weekend Read! Be sure to let us know what issues and trends we should have on our radar.