New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds Trump at 51%, Biden at 49% in head-to-head matchup; each leads primary challenger by more than 50 points

Biden’s favorability more net negative, -20, than Trump’s, -9; two-thirds of respondents critical of Biden administration’s border policies; views of the economy have improved since September

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds former President Donald Trump is the choice of 51% of registered voters and President Joe Biden is the choice of 49%. Among likely voters, Trump receives 52% and Biden 48%.

These results include voters who initially said they would vote for someone else or would not vote but were then asked their preference if they had to choose one of the two candidates. In the initial question, 13% said “someone else” or that they would not vote. Trump received initial support from 45%, and Biden was the initial choice of 42%.

The survey was conducted Feb. 5-15, 2024, interviewing 882 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 706, with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points.

The Marquette Law School Poll has seen a close race between Trump and Biden among registered voters since May 2023, when it began asking about a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 presidential election, with the trend show in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. Trump, May 2023-Feb. 2024

Among registered voters

Poll datesVote
Donald TrumpJoe Biden
2/5-15/245149
11/2-7/235248
9/18-25/235148
7/7-12/235050
5/8-18/235247
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Trump or for Biden?

Table 2 shows the Biden vs. Trump results by party identification. Trump receives a higher share of Republican votes than does Biden among Democrats, while independents favor Trump.

Table 2: Vote for Biden or Trump, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDVote
Donald TrumpJoe Biden
Total5149
Republican937
Independent5443
Democrat991
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?

Among likely voters, the trend is shown in Table 3. The likely-voter measure was not included prior to September.

Table 3: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. Trump, Sept. 2023-Feb. 2024

Among likely voters

Poll datesVote
Donald TrumpJoe Biden
2/5-15/245248
11/2-7/235149
9/18-25/234951
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Trump or for Biden?

Nikki Haley, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and former governor of South Carolina, holds a larger lead over Biden than does Trump, with 58% of registered voters supporting her and 42% supporting Biden.

Haley holds Republican support against Biden as well as Trump does, while attracting a substantial cross-over vote from Democrats. Independents support Haley by a substantial margin, as shown in Table 4. Her strength with Republicans combined with an ability to attract more Democratic and independent voters than does Trump accounts for her stronger overall support against Biden than Trump’s.

Table 4: Vote for Biden or Haley, by party identification
Among registered voters

Party IDVote
Nikki HaleyJoe Biden
Total5842
Republican946
Independent6037
Democrat2179
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden?
Question: If you had to choose would you vote for Biden or for Haley?

Five-way race

When the ballot question is expanded to include independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump receives 42% and Biden 39%. Kennedy is supported by 15%, West wins 3%, and Stein is the choice of 2%.

The five-way vote by party is shown in Table 5. The additional candidates draw partisan support away from both Trump and Biden. Trump holds 80% support from Republicans and Biden 78% support from Democrats. Kennedy wins slightly more of the vote from Republicans than he does from Democrats, while West and Stein draw more Democratic than Republican support. Independents are widely spread across the candidates, with the independent and third-party candidates doing much better than they do with partisans. Trump wins 34% of the vote of independents to Biden’s 18% when independent and third-party candidates are included.

Table 5: Five-candidate ballot, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDVote choice
BidenTrumpKennedyWestSteinRefused
Total394215320
Republican48015010
Independent1834291343
Democrat78512420
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, independent Cornel West, or the Green Party’s Jill Stein?

GOP primary and Democratic primary

Trump receives 73% to Haley’s 15% in a matchup among Republican registered voters. In the November national survey, Trump was the choice of 54% and Haley the choice of 12%.

The full trend of GOP primary polling since March 2023 is shown in Table 6. The decline of Ron DeSantis’ support over the primary season and Trump’s rise are notable. Haley has had rising support but has not become competitive with Trump at any point in the last 11 months of polling. Trump has seen a substantial rise in support as the primary process has developed.

Table 6: Support for Republican 2024 presidential nomination

Among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

CandidatePoll dates
2/5-15/2411/2-7/239/18-25/237/7-12/235/8-18/233/13-22/23
Donald Trump735456464640
Nikki Haley15126645
Ron DeSantis1212222535
Vivek Ramaswamy4413
Tim Scott22410
Chris Christie11110
Doug Burgum01
Asa Hutchinson00100
Mike Pence4725
Larry Elder001
Will Hurd00
Undecided/Other121615121612
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: If the Republican presidential primary were today, whom would you vote for?

In the Democratic primary, Biden is the choice of 66%, with 6% supporting Marianne Williamson (who suspended her campaign during the field period of this poll) and 2% for Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips. A quarter of Democrats (27%) said they were undecided.

Last year, Kennedy was considering entering the Democratic primaries, and so was included in the primary ballot in previous surveys. The full trend for the Democratic primary vote is shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Support for Democratic 2024 presidential nomination

Among registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic

CandidatePoll dates
2/5-15/249/18-25/237/7-12/235/8-18/23
Joe Biden66535451
Marianne Williamson6366
Dean Phillips2
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.121413
Undecided27312730
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: If the Democratic presidential primary were today, whom would you vote for?

Favorability

Each of the candidates except Kennedy has a net negative favorability rating, as shown in Table 8. The independent candidates, Kennedy and West, have high rates of “haven’t heard enough,” as does Haley. Biden has the highest net negative favorability rating at -20, while Trump has a net -9 rating. The rating of Vice President Kamala Harris, who was included in this question, closely mirrors Biden’s.

Table 8: Favorability ratings

Among registered voters

CandidateFavorability
Net favorableFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Joe Biden-2040601
Kamala Harris-1937567
Nikki Haley-13344719
Cornel West-9122167
Donald Trump-945541
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.8403228
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Biden’s favorability rating over time is shown in Table 9. Biden’s net favorability has fallen from -5 in November 2021 to -20 in the current survey.

Table 9: Biden favorability trend

Among registered voters

Poll datesFavorability
Net favorableFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
2/5-15/24-2040601
11/2-7/23-1940591
9/18-25/23-2139601
7/7-12/23-1741581
5/8-18/23-2337603
3/13-22/23-1541563
1/9-20/23-1143542
11/15-22/22-646523
9/7-14/22-944532
7/5-12/22-2635613
5/9-19/22-1740573
3/14-24/22-1044542
1/10-21/22-646523
11/1-10/21-545505
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

The favorability trend for Trump is shown in Table 10. Trump’s net favorability has improved from -34 in November 2021 to -9 in the current poll.

Table 10: Trump favorability trend

Among registered voters

Poll datesFavorability
Net favorableFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
2/5-15/24-945541
11/2-7/23-1542572
9/18-25/23-1542571
7/7-12/23-2835632
5/8-18/23-2138592
3/13-22/23-2934632
1/9-20/23-2636622
11/15-22/22-3631671
9/7-14/22-3034642
7/5-12/22-2735623
5/9-19/22-2337602
3/14-24/22-2238602
1/10-21/22-3731681
11/1-10/21-3432662
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

For Biden and Trump, 17% of respondents are unfavorable to both candidates. The number of those unfavorable to both has remained near 20% since November 2021. The trend for favorability to both Biden and Trump is shown in Table 11. Biden had an advantage in favorability over Trump in most of the early polling, but Trump has held the advantage over the last three polls.

Table 11: Favorability to Biden and Trump, Nov. 2021-Feb. 2024

Among registered voters

Poll datesFavorability to both
Fav Biden, Fav TrumpFav Biden, Unfav TrumpUnfav Biden, Fav TrumpUnfav Biden, Unfav TrumpDon’t know
2/5-15/2423742171
11/2-7/2333638202
9/18-25/2333639202
7/7-12/2313933233
5/8-18/2323536235
3/13-22/2323932235
1/9-20/2314234194
11/15-22/2214430214
9/7-14/2214332213
7/5-12/2203534265
5/9-19/2213936204
3/14-24/2224135183
1/10-21/2224429224
11/1-10/2114330206
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

For a matter not shown in the table: Those favorable to Biden and unfavorable to Trump give Biden 98% of their votes in the current survey, while those favorable to Trump and unfavorable to Biden give Trump 100%. Those who are unfavorable to both have varied in their vote choices over recent polls. In the current poll, those unfavorable to both support Biden with 63% and Trump with 36%, while in November 2023 they supported Trump 52% to 48% for Biden, and in September it was 54% for Biden and 45% for Trump. (The sample size of those favorable to both Biden and Trump is too small for meaningful analysis.)

Vote by Biden approval

Biden’s job approval in February was 38% with 62% disapproving, down two points from November’s 40% approval and 60% disapproval.

A strength of Biden, despite his high disapproval, has been his ability to win votes from those who “somewhat disapprove” of how he has handled his job as president, typically splitting or winning a small majority of this group of voters. Table 12 shows how voters choose to vote for Biden or Trump by strength of approval or disapproval. Biden wins large percentages of both categories of approval, while Trump dominates the strongly disapproving voters. Biden wins 60% for those somewhat disapproving of his job performance, against Trump’s 40%. In November, Biden took 55% to Trump’s 45% among the somewhat disapproving.

Table 12: Biden vs. Trump vote, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Biden job approvalVote
Donald TrumpJoe Biden
Total5149
Strongly approve298
Somewhat approve991
Somewhat disapprove4060
Strongly disapprove954
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Perceptions of Biden and Trump

Table 13 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on seven issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, the economy, and, to a lesser degree, foreign relations. Biden is seen as better on abortion policy, health care, and handling Medicare and Social Security.

The combined percentage who say that neither candidate would be good on an issue or that each would both be about the same ranges from 17% to 29%, an indication that, even with two such well-known candidates, there remains considerable uncertainty over how successfully each would handle these issues.

Table 13: Who would handle issues better

Registered voters

IssueWho better on issue
BidenTrumpBoth about the sameNeither good
Immigration and border security2553615
Handling the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza28431118
The economy3252710
Foreign relations3744712
Medicare & Social Security40361311
Health care42341311
Abortion policy42341112
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues?

On the issue of illegal immigration and border control, 46% strongly agree with the statement, “The Biden administration’s border policies have created a crisis of uncontrolled illegal migration into the country,” and an additional 20% somewhat agree. Fifteen percent strongly disagree with the statement, and 19% somewhat disagree.

Thirty-nine percent strongly favor “deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries,” while 29% somewhat agree. Eleven percent strongly oppose deportations and 21% somewhat oppose deportations.

Table 14 shows how well various phrases, in the opinion of respondents, describe Biden and Trump. Biden particularly is seen as too old to be president, compared to those who see Trump as too old. Fifty-five percent say the phrase describes Biden very well, and 25% say the same of Trump.

On “shares your values,” more say this describes Trump very well than say this of Biden, but more also say this describes Trump not at all well than say the same of Biden.

Corruption assertions have been leveled against both candidates, with 30% saying “has behaved corruptly” describes Biden very well and 47% saying the same for Trump.

On having a strong record of accomplishment as president, 17% say this describes Biden very well, while 35% say this describes Trump very well.

Table 14: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump

Among registered voters

IssueHow well phrase describes
Very wellSomewhat wellNot too wellNot at all well
Is too old to be president
Biden55231111
Trump25282324
Shares your values
Biden13301839
Trump2124945
Has behaved corruptly
Biden30181834
Trump47151919
Has a strong record of accomplishments as president
Biden17242138
Trump35161534
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)?

Small changes in public opinion after Special Counsel Hur’s report

Special counsel Robert Hur’s report on Biden’s handling of classified documents was released on Feb. 8, during the field period of this survey.

Of those respondents interviewed before the report was released, 71% said they believed Biden had possessed classified documents at his home in Delaware. Of those interviewed after the report became public, 76% thought he had had classified documents. Comparing the full samples, in November, 71% believed Biden to have had classified documents and 74% believed this in February.

The report also raised public questions concerning Biden’s memory. For those interviewed before the report was released, 51% said “is too old to be president” describes Biden very well. For those interviewed after the report was released, 59% said it described him very well. Yet there was no overall increase from late last year, comparing the full samples: In November, 57% said “to old to be president” describes Biden very well and 55% said this in February.

Attention to topics in the news

Of recent events in the news, 56% said they had heard a lot about a jury ordering Trump to pay $83.3 million for defaming writer E. Jean Caroll, 29% had heard a little, and 15% had heard nothing at all.

Fifty-two percent had heard a lot about U.S. military strikes on Iranian-backed militia sites in Syria and Iraq, while 35% heard a little and 13% heard nothing at all.

After the start of the party primary season, 42% heard a lot about the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, 31% heard a little, and 27% heard nothing at all.

Respondents are more likely to say they have paid a lot of attention to news about inflation than to news about unemployment. The survey asks about the latest estimates of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the unemployment rate for the most recent month available at the time of the survey—December for inflation and January for unemployment in this case. Table 15 shows that 40% report paying a lot of attention to news about inflation and 30% a lot of attention to news about unemployment. In November, 49% said they had heard a lot about inflation and 23% said they had heard a lot about unemployment.

Table 15: How much heard about economic news

Registered voters

 How much heard or read
IssueA lotA littleNothing at all
Inflation rate404416
Unemployment rate304823
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? News reports that consumer prices (inflation) rose by 3.4% over the past 12 months (as of December)
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? News reports that the unemployment rate was 3.7% (as of January)

Economic perceptions

Views of the nation’s economy have improved somewhat since September, though more say it is “not so good” or “poor” than say it is “excellent” or “good.” Table 16 shows the trend over the past three polls.

Table 16: View of the national economy

Among registered voters

Poll datesView of the economy
ExcellentGoodNot so goodPoor
2/5-15/246294025
11/2-7/233244033
9/18-25/233204532
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

Republicans and independents are quite negative and Democrats somewhat more positive about the state of the economy. Table 17 shows opinion of the economy overall and by party identification.

Table 17: View of the national economy, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDView of the economy
ExcellentGoodNot so goodPoor
Total6294025
Republican2124641
Independent3194830
Democrat1149329
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

Asked about their personal financial situation, in February 42% say they are living comfortably, 41% are just getting by, and 17% say they are struggling. That is little changed from November when 39% said they were living comfortably, 43% were just getting by, and 19% said they were struggling.

Partisanship also strongly affects views of the economy, regardless of respondents’ personal financial situations. Table 18 shows views of the economy by family financial situation and by party. Those with a better personal financial situation tend to see the economy as better than those with worse finances, but partisanship is strongly correlated with views of the economy in each category of personal finances.

Table 18: View of the economy by financial situation and by party identification

Among registered voters

Financial situaionView of the economy
ExcellentGoodNot so goodPoor
Living comfortably
Republican4205322
Independent635563
Democrat1754263
Just getting by
Republican094744
Independent3195226
Democrat444439
Struggling
Republican033165
Independent023463
Democrat2411838
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

International issues

Following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, 45% say the U.S. should support Israel, 7% say the U.S. should support Hamas, and 48% say the U.S. should not take a position on the conflict. In November 52% said the U.S. should support Israel, 5% said support Hamas, and 43% said the U.S. should not take a position.

Views of whom to support differ by party, with Republicans most supportive of Israel and the majorities of Democrats and, especially, independents saying the U.S. should not take a position, as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDSupport Israel or Hamas
Support IsraelSupport HamasNot take a position
Total45748
Republican64135
Independent23373
Democrat311356
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position?

Table 20 shows opinion by party from the November survey. While there has been little change among Republicans and independents, Democrats have become substantially more likely to say the U.S. should not take a position and less likely to say the U.S. should support Israel. Democrats saying the U.S. should support Hamas increased from 8% in November to 13% in February.

Table 20: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position by party identification

Among registered voters, November 2023

Party IDSupport Israel or Hamas
Support IsraelSupport HamasNot take a position
Total52543
Republican65134
Independent21475
Democrat47845
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position?

There are also sharp ideological differences, shown in Table 21, with conservatives much more in favor of supporting Israel, while a majority of somewhat liberal and very liberal registered voters say the U.S. should not take a position. One in five who consider themselves very liberal say the U.S. should support Hamas, as do 14% of those who are somewhat liberal.

Table 21: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position, by ideology

Among registered voters

 Support Israel or Hamas
Ideology IDSupport IsraelSupport HamasNot take a position
Total45748
Very conservative72027
Somewhat conservative63136
Moderate35560
Somewhat liberal341452
Very liberal182161
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position?
Question: Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views?

Those in the youngest age group, 18-29, show the same levels of support for Israel and for Hamas, though 56% say the U.S. should not take a position. Support for Israel increases steadily with age, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas or not take a position by age

Among registered voters

AgeSupport Israel or Hamas
Support IsraelSupport HamasNot take a position
Total45748
18-29232256
30-4433760
45-5946351
60+65134
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position?

Abortion

Preferences over abortion policy have changed little in polling since May 2022, with 70% saying abortion should be legal in all or most cases and 30% saying it should be illegal in all or most cases. Table 23 shows the full trend on these preferences.

Table 23: Abortion policy preference trend

Among registered voters

Poll datesPolicy preference
Legal in all casesLegal in most casesIllegal in most casesIllegal in all cases
2/5-15/243040246
11/2-7/232838259
9/18-25/233336256
7/7-12/232936296
5/8-18/233236266
3/13-22/232836296
1/9-20/232638297
11/15-22/223137248
9/7-14/223235276
7/5-12/222935288
5/9-19/222937258
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Feb. 5-15, 2024, interviewing 882 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 706 with a margin of error is +/-5 percentage points. For registered voters who are Republican or independents who lean Republican, the sample size in 409 and the margin of error is +/-6.6 percentage points. For registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic, the sample size in 382 and the margin of error is +/-6.8 percentage points.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. Certain other data from this survey (focusing on those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, on Feb. 21. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law Poll website.

New Marquette Law School national survey finds approval of U.S. Supreme Court at 40%, public split on removal of Trump from ballot

Confidence in juries remains high compared to other institutions; public remains opposed to the overturning of Roe v. Wade, supportive of gun rights outside home

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 40% of adults approve of the job that the Supreme Court of the United States is doing, while 60% disapprove. In November, 41% approved and 59% disapproved. Approval of the Court has remained below 50% in surveys since March 2022, when it stood at 54%. While approval is up from the low point of 38% in July 2022, it has declined from its recent high of 45% in July 2023.

The trend in approval since 2020 is shown in Figure 1 and Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Approval of the US Supreme Court

Table 1: U.S. Supreme Court approval

Among adults

Poll datesApproval
ApproveDisapprove
2/5-15/244060
11/2-7/234159
9/18-25/234357
7/7-12/234555
5/8-18/234159
3/13-22/234456
1/9-20/234753
11/15-22/224456
9/7-14/224060
7/5-12/223861
5/9-19/224455
3/14-24/225445
1/10-21/225246
11/1-10/215446
9/7-16/214950
7/16-26/216039
9/8-15/206633
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national Supreme Court survey was conducted Feb. 5-15, 2024. The survey interviewed 1,003 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points.

Partisan and ideological views of the Court

Views of the Court have come to be substantially structured by partisanship, more so in recent years. In 2020, the first year the Marquette Law School Poll asked this question about the Court, national majorities of Republicans, independents, and Democrats approved of the job the Court was doing, as shown in Table 2, with Republican approval being especially high. In the current survey, there are substantially larger partisan differences, with a majority of Republicans approving of the Court’s job performance, while majorities of independents and Democrats disapprove, as shown in Table 3. (Throughout this report, party identification includes independents who say that they are closer to a party, while independents are those who say they are not closer to either party.)

Table 2: U.S. Supreme Court approval, by party identification, 2020

Among adults

Party IDApproval
ApproveDisapprove
Total6633
Republican7820
Independent5046
Democrat6039
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 8-15, 2020
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

Table 3: U.S. Supreme Court approval, by party identification, 2024

Among adults

Party IDApproval
ApproveDisapprove
Total4060
Republican5743
Independent2872
Democrat2773
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

Political ideological identification also shapes views of the Court, as shown in Table 4. Self-described conservatives are strongly approving of the Court, while self-described liberals are sharply disapproving. A majority of moderates also disapprove.

Table 4: U.S. Supreme Court approval, by self-described ideology, 2024

Among adults

IdeologyApproval
ApproveDisapprove
Total4060
Very conservative6238
Somewhat conservative5446
Moderate3763
Somewhat liberal2575
Very liberal1783
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?
Question: Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views?

Public opinion about pending cases

Substantial percentages of respondents say they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion about a case concerning Colorado’s decision to remove former President Donald Trump from the ballot under the U.S. Constitution’s 14th Amendment, or about a case concerning the possession of firearms by people under domestic violence restraining orders. On the former, 31% say they haven’t heard anything or haven’t heard enough to have an opinion, while on the gun possession case 42% haven’t heard anything or haven’t heard enough.

Of those with an opinion, 50% favor the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning the Colorado decision to disqualify Trump from the ballot, while 50% oppose overturning that decision.

Of those with an opinion, 91% say the Court should uphold a federal law that prohibits people under domestic violence restraining orders from possessing firearms, while 9% think that the Court should hold it unconstitutional.

Attention to news about the Court

Attention among the public to news about the Supreme Court has increased since November but remains rather limited. Table 5 shows the trend in attention to news about the Court from September 2023 to February 2024. In both September and November, few respondents had heard a lot about the Court in the previous month, but in February attention rose as the Court heard arguments in some major cases. Almost a quarter have heard a lot about the Court in the last month, while about one in five say they’ve heard no news about the Court in that time. A majority say they have heard just a little.

Table 5: Attention to news about the Court

Among adults

Poll datesHow much heard or read
A lotA littleNothing at all
2/5-15/24245620
11/2-7/23156025
9/18-25/23176122
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Thinking about the last month only, how much have you heard or read about the U.S. Supreme Court?

Past decisions

Opinions about recent decisions concerning abortion, gun possession outside the home, and the use of race in college admissions have remained stable in recent months.

In June 2022, the Supreme Court issued the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling that made abortion legal in all 50 states. The Court also ruled then in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen that the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. A year later, in June 2023, the Court ruled in Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President and Fellows of Harvard College that use of race in university admissions violates the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment.

Table 6 shows the trend in opinion about the Dobbs decision. A substantial majority, 67%, oppose the decision, while 33% favor it. In polling from November 2022 to February 2024, these percentages have fluctuated by only a few percentage points, with no consistent trend.

Table 6: Favor or oppose Dobbs decision striking down Roe v. Wade

Among adults

Poll datesFavor or oppose *Dobbs*
FavorOppose
2/5-15/243367
11/2-7/233565
9/18-25/233664
7/7-12/233862
5/8-18/233565
3/13-22/233367
1/9-20/233564
11/15-22/223366
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Opinion of the Bruen decision is shown in Table 7. A solid majority, 64%, favor Bruen’s affirmation of a right to possess a firearm outside the home, while 36% are opposed to the decision. There has been little change in these views in polls from September 2023 to the present.

Table 7: Favor or oppose Bruen decision on gun rights

Among adults

Poll datesFavor or oppose *Bruen*
FavorOppose
2/5-15/246436
11/2-7/236733
9/18-25/236436
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Regarding the 2023 Students for Fair Admissions case, in the current poll, 75% favor the decision banning the use of race in admissions, while 25% oppose that ruling. Table 8 shows that the majority opinion among the public has remained stable since September 2023.

Table 8: Favor or oppose Students for Fair Admissions decision on race in college admissions

Among adults

Poll datesFavor or oppose decision
FavorOppose
2/5-15/247525
11/2-7/237921
9/18-25/237723
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: In 2023, the Supreme Court ruled that colleges cannot use race as a factor in deciding which applicants to admit. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
 

Confidence in institutions

Confidence in several institutions is summarized in Table 9. Juries in criminal cases enjoy the highest confidence of the five institutions, with the lowest percentage saying they have little or no confidence in juries. The U.S. Department of Justice, the U.S. Supreme Court, and the presidency each have the same percentage, 25%, saying they have a great deal or a lot of confidence, with small differences in those saying little or no confidence. Congress has the lowest confidence rating, with 10% of the public expressing a great deal or a lot of confidence and 57% saying they have little or no confidence in Congress. That is a decline: In July 2023, 14% said they had a great deal or a lot of confidence in Congress, while 43% had little or no confidence.

Table 9: Confidence in institutions

Among adults

InstitutionConfidence
Great deal/a lotSomeLittle/None
Juries that decide criminal cases344224
The U.S. Department of Justice253638
U.S. Supreme Court253540
The presidency253144
Congress103357
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

Confidence in the Court as an institution has declined from its recent high in July 2023, when 31% expressed a great deal or a lot of confidence, 32% some confidence, and 37% little or no confidence in the Court. The full trend is shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court

Among adults

Poll datesConfidence
Great deal/a lotSomeLittle/None
2/5-15/24253540
11/2-7/23283636
9/18-25/23283735
7/7-12/23313237
5/8-18/23253639
3/13-22/23284032
1/9-20/23313831
11/15-22/22303634
9/7-14/22303436
7/5-12/22282844
9/8-15/20394516
9/3-13/19374220
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: The U.S. Supreme Court: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

Since 2019, there has been an increase in the percentage of the public who think the justices’ decisions are motivated by politics, rising from 35% in 2019 to 54% in the current poll, with a sharp increase beginning in January 2022. The full trend is shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Are justices’ decisions motivated mainly by the law or mainly by politics?

Among adults

Poll datesPerceived motivation
Mainly politicsMainly the law
2/5-15/245446
11/2-7/235545
9/18-25/235248
7/7-12/235842
1/9-20/234951
7/5-12/225248
1/10-21/224753
11/1-10/213070
9/7-16/213961
7/16-26/212971
9/8-15/203762
9/3-13/193564
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: In general, what most often motivates Supreme Court justices’ decisions?

There has been a small fluctuation in the ratings of the honesty and ethical standards of the justices of the Supreme Court from May 2023 to the present. In the current poll, 27% rate the standards of the justices as very high or high, 36% rate them as low or very low, and 37% call them average. In July 2023, 32% rated the justices’ ethical standards very high or high, while 35% rated them low or very low, while in May 2023 the numbers were very close to the current ones. The full trend is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Honesty and ethical standards of justices

Among adults

Poll datesHonesty & ethical standards
Very high/highAverageLow/Very low
2/5-15/24273736
11/2-7/23283934
9/18-25/23304129
7/7-12/23323335
5/8-18/23263935
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: How would you rate the honesty and ethical standards of U.S. Supreme Court justices?

Views of the justices

Despite their position on the high court, Supreme Court justices are not well known to the public. While perceptions of the individual justices vary, more than half of the public lacks an opinion of each of the justices other than Justice Clarence Thomas and Justice Brett Kavanaugh. The favorability ratings of the justices are shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Favorability ratings of U.S. Supreme Court justices

Among adults

 Favorability
CandidateNet favorableFavorableUnfavorableNot heard/not enough
Alito0161667
Barrett-5192457
Gorsuch1151470
Jackson7231661
Kagan615976
Kavanaugh-7233047
Roberts11251460
Sotomayor15311653
Thomas-7263341
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Feb. 5-15, 2024
Question: Some justices of the Supreme Court are better known than others. For each of these names, have you never heard of them, heard of them but don’t know enough to have an opinion of them, have a favorable opinion or have an unfavorable opinion?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Feb. 5-15, 2024, interviewing 1,003 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law Poll website. Some items from this survey are held for later release.

Wording of questions about past Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms.

The wording of questions about previous decisions include:

Opinion of Dobbs decision, striking down Roe v. Wade

  • In 2022 the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Opinion of decision concerning possession of guns outside the home

  • In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Opinion of decision banning use of race in college admissions

In 2023, the Supreme Court ruled that colleges cannot use race as a factor in deciding which applicants to admit. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?