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Vehicle electrification is one of the emerging and potentially disruptive technologies that are being considered to reduce emissions of criteria pollutants, mobile source air toxics (MSATs), and greenhouse gases (GHGs) from motor vehicles.

The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Web-Only Document 274: Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications analyzes a set of scenarios of infrastructure development, policy changes, and cost parameters, with a suite of 49 simulations across those scenarios conducted to assess their impact on nationwide zero emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption and the corresponding levels of exhaust emissions.

The model used in the scenarios analysis is a consumer choice model that estimates future sales, populations, and fuel consumption of advanced technology vehicles (ATVs), including ZEVs.

There is also a Power Point presentation accompanying the document.

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Suggested Citation

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25709.

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Publication Info

109 pages |  8.5 x 11 |  DOI: https://doi.org/10.17226/25709
Chapters skim
NCHRP Web-Only Document 274: Zero Emission Vehicles: Forecasting Fleet Scenarios and their Emissions Implications 1-1
FRONT MATTER 2-4
CONTENTS 5-7
SUMMARY 8-11
CHAPTER 1 Background and Approach 12-13
CHAPTER 2 Brief Literature Review to Support Modeling Scenario Development 14-31
CHAPTER 3 Analysis Scenarios 32-36
CHAPTER 4 Modeling Assumptions and Results 37-76
CHAPTER 5 Conclusions and Suggested Research 77-79
REFERENCES 80-87
ACRONYMS 88-89
APPENDIX A Supplemental Data 90-109

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