Political notebook: Session's over - election's begun

The head-spinning, stomach-churning 2023 Legislative session has ended. But hold onto that Dramamine and antacids — the 2024 election is cranking up. So are activist groups looking to move votes left, right or sideways. 

MONSOON OF MONEY: In federal races — U.S. President, the U.S. Senate, and U.S. House — candidates, party committees and other political action committees raised $832 million in the first five months of 2023. Candidates for Congress and the Legislature have announced, although the Oregon Secretary of State won't start taking declarations of candidacy until Sept. 14. 

FOCUS ON THE FIFTH: The 2022 election featured three open congressional seats on the general election ballot — leading to the election of two Democrats — U.S. Rep. Val Hoyle, D-Springfield, and U.S. Rep. Andrea Salinas, D-Tigard. U.S. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, R-Happy Valley, gave the Republicans a second seat in the Oregon delegation and helped put the GOP in the majority of the U.S. House.

For 2024, Hoyle is the lone candidate listed by the Federal Election Commission in the 4th District. In the 6th district, Salinas is the lone Democrat and David Russ of Dundee has filed as a Republican challenger.

The biggest congressional attraction on next year's ballot is shaping up to be in the 5th district running from Portland to Bend. Chavez-DeRemer is running for re-election and the FEC reports show Rep. Janelle Bynum, D-Clackamas, and Metro President Lynn Peterson as filing to run. Kevin Easton of Salem is campaigning to become the first openly gay man to represent Oregon in Congress. Still on the sidelines is Terrebonne attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who narrowly lost to Chavez-DeRemer in 2022.

McLeod-Skinner confirmed Tuesday she had commissioned a poll, first reported by the Oregon Capital Chronicle, showing she had a strong chance to win the 5th district primary if she ran again. Reached on Tuesday, McLeod-Skinner said she would be spending time with family out of state for the Fourth of July holiday and would decide on the race "early next month." Which is just about now.

PARITY ARRIVES IN OREGON: Run Vote Lead, a national organization based in New York that monitors and promotes equality in the gender make-up of state legislatures, issued a report showing Oregon among the leaders in parity between men and women as lawmakers — at least in one chamber. Based on the 2022 election results, women hold 48% of the seats in the Oregon House, a good showing for a state where women make up 50.4% of population. The Oregon Senate is further behind, with women accounting for 31% of senators. In 2022, Colorado joined Nevada in having "gender parity" in its legislature. 

Jenifer Howard, spokesperson for Run Vote Lead, noted that western states had led the way early in breaking the gender barrier.

"Wyoming was the first U.S. territory to grant women the right to vote in 1869, and Colorado became the first state to elect women to its parliamentary body in 1894," she said. "Colorado became the first state to elect women to its parliamentary body in 1894. In fact, the Colorado legislature was the first parliamentary body to elect women in the world.

Howard said that western states continue to be far more likely to have equal gender representation, regardless of political party.

"Arizona recently achieved 51.7% of state senators now women, and other western states like New Mexico, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii are nearing equal representation in their state houses.," Howard said.

BOTH SIDES NOW - MAJORITY AND MINORITY: Imagining yourself in the other person's shoes is one thing. Having been there is another. Among Oregon state lawmakers, few are left from the time when Republicans were the majority and Democrats the minority.

Republicans haven't won an outright majority in the Oregon Senate since the 2000 election. They won an even 15-15 split in 2002 before Democrats reclaimed the majority in 2004 and have held it ever since.

On the House side, Republicans last held a majority following the 2004 election. After ceding control to Democrats in 2006, the GOP returned in 2010 won an  30-30 split before falling back into minority status as a result of the 2012, where they have stayed ever since.

Setting aside the even split sessions, the number of current legislators who have been in the true majority and minority at points in their career is small.

In the 60-member House, only one Republican has been through the seesawing of political control. Rep. Greg Smith, R-Heppner, came to the House in 2001. He was part of the majority for six years, then the minority for four, a split House for two, then into the minority for 11 years.

Among Democrats are a few who can remember being the underdog minority: Rep. Paul Holvey, D-Eugene, has been a House member since 2004, serving in the Democratic minority in his early days.

Democrat Sara Gelser was appointed to a House seat representing Corvallis in 2005, when the Democrats were in the minority. With Republicans losing control of the House in 2006, Gelser was part of the Democratic majority. After marriage and winning election to the other chamber, she's served in the majority since 2013 as Sen. Sara Gelser Blouin, D-Corvallis.

Sen. Floyd Prozanski, D-Eugene, was elected in 1994 and served until 2003 with one short gap  - always in the Democratic minority. He was appointed to the Senate in 2003, when the chamber was evenly split 15-15 between the parties, then has served in the Democratic majority since the 2004 election.

There are Oregon political versions of military "retreads" from different eras — like soldiers who served in separate wars.

Current House Minority Leader Tim Knopp, R-Bend, was elected to the House in 1998, serving in the GOP majority and rising to majority leader in 2002-2003. Knopp didn't run in 2004 and wouldn't return to legislative politics until 2012, when he won a primary challenge against Sen. Chris Telfer, R-Bend. He's been in the minority during his Senate career.

Rep. Kevin Mannix, R-Salem, is a saga all his own. Elected to the House in 1988 as a Democrat, he served one term in the then-Democratic majority. Republicans took control of the House 1990 election and Mannix was in the minority.

Mannix lost the 1996 Democratic primary for attorney general to former House Speaker Hardy Myers, D-Portland, after which Mannix became a Republican and was appointed to the GOP-controlled Senate in 1997.

Mannix ran as a Republican for the House in 1998 and won one term serving with the GOP majority. He left the legislature in 2000 for a bid for attorney general as a Republican, losing a close race to the incumbent, Myers.

Mannix was the 2002 GOP nominee for governor, losing to Democrat Ted Kulongoski. He chaired the Oregon Republican Party from 2003 to 2005, lost the 2006 GOP primary for governor, and a 2008 primary for Congress. 

Throughout his career, Mannix had championed ballot measures and they remained his area of concentration until 2022, when he won election to the House after a two-decade absence. He's part of the GOP minority.