International Monetary Fund’s Post

IMF staff project Singapore’s GDP growth to reach 2.1 percent in 2024, reflecting a continued recovery in manufacturing, tourism, and consumer-facing services. We expect inflation to moderate to 3 percent this year and stabilize further by 2025. Risks to the growth outlook mainly stem from a steeper-than-projected slowdown in China, prolonged tight US monetary policy, and deeper geoeconomic fragmentation. On the other hand, stronger global growth would have positive spillovers to Singapore. The government’s Forward Singapore initiative will help promote inclusive growth amid rapid population ageing and technological advancements. Learn more: https://lnkd.in/efgUK5kF

Anguilla's .ai domain registrations surged from 144,000 in 2022 to 354,000 in 2023, generating over 20% of the government's total revenue for the year. Find out in our Country Focus how this helps diversify the economy, making it more resilient to shocks. https://lnkd.in/eaV6PgF9

Shifting global trade patterns present a unique opportunity for countries in the Middle East and Central Asia to redefine their place in the global economic framework. See our new blog for more. https://lnkd.in/epX_g3nF

Europe's domestic recovery is on track. But to sustain strong growth, the region needs to overcome formidable challenges. 🇪🇺 income levels are significantly behind the global frontier. The average EU per capita income is about one-third lower than in the U.S. A closer look reveals that productivity is the main issue, contributing to 70% of this difference. Factors such as a smaller capital stock and less labor input in the EU also play a role, accounting for the remainder of the gap. Check out the latest on the Regional Economic Outlook for Europe: https://lnkd.in/gS-UvwDa

IMF forecasts Japan’s economy grows at 0.9% this year, supported by a pick-up in consumption. We project core inflation will stay above the 2% target until the second half of 2025. Risks to growth and inflation are broadly balanced.   On fiscal policy, the government should rebuild fiscal buffers and ensure debt sustainability through both revenue and expenditure measures. On monetary policy, further hikes in the short-term interest rate should proceed at a gradual pace and be data dependent.   Read our latest report on Japan: https://lnkd.in/e4kRMu-z

We project GDP growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia to slow from 4.9% in 2023 to 3.9% in 2024 before rising to 4.8% in 2025. This downgrade for 2024 (from 4.2% in our Oct. 2023 projection) and upgrade for 2025 (from 4.4%) are mainly due to oil production shifts in Kazakhstan.    We expect inflation in the Caucasus and Central Asia to cool to 7.7% in 2024 and 7.1% in 2025. Most of these countries have already reached their inflation targets and have begun lowering interest rates.    Learn more: https://lnkd.in/e2WjHwFx

Shifts in global trade patterns have generated new opportunities for countries in the Middle East and Central Asia. Reducing trade barriers, easing regulatory constraints, and upgrading infrastructure can mitigate challenges and help countries leverage these opportunities. https://lnkd.in/epX_g3nF

Narrowing the gap between the share of men and women who work is one of the very important reforms policymakers can make to revive economies amid the weakest medium-term growth outlook in more than three decades. https://lnkd.in/eUABaTpq

Globally, there is about $1 trillion in hidden debt—borrowing for which a government is liable, but which is not disclosed to its citizens or to other creditors. Read more in our blog. https://lnkd.in/ers3p6G2

Housing is one reason not all countries feel the same pinch of higher interest rates. The share of fixed-rate mortgages varies widely, from near zero in South Africa to more than 95% in Mexico or the US. Our research shows monetary policy has more economic impact where there are fewer fixed-rate loans. https://lnkd.in/evyWywZr