Today, SOMA Manager Roberto Perli provided the keynote remarks on Monetary Policy Implementation at an event hosted by the Money Marketeers of New York University. Full speech: https://nyfed.org/3XubIq5
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Be aware of potentially fake online job postings that claim to be from the Federal Reserve. Always verify and apply to jobs on the Federal Reserve System Careers webpage. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York works within the Federal Reserve System and with other public and private sector institutions to foster the safety, soundness and vitality of our economic and financial systems. Some of its most critical functions include the implementation of monetary policy, supervision and regulation of depository institutions, international operations and financial services. The New York Fed oversees the Second Federal Reserve District, which includes New York State, the 12 northern counties of New Jersey, Fairfield County in Connecticut, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Though we serve the public interest in a geographically small area, the New York Fed is the largest Reserve Bank in terms of assets and volume of activity. We accomplish this with talented and innovative people working within a collaborative and inclusive culture. We welcome and invite engagement and discussion on our Linkedin page. In order to maintain a productive exchange of thoughts, opinions, and ideas we prohibit any comments that contain: • Defamation of an individual, group or organization • Spam: posting identical or similar posts repeatedly • Obscenity or vulgarity • Misleading or fraudulent statements and false information • A violation of another’s intellectual property rights • commercial in nature The views, opinions and experiences expressed in user-submitted comments are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. We reserve the right to remove comments, at our discretion and without notice.
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Updates
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After a period of high inflation following the pandemic recession, inflationary pressures have been moderating the past few years, dropping from a peak of 9.1 percent in 2022 to 3 percent at the beginning of 2025. In today's post, the authors share findings from the New York Fed’s February regional business surveys, noting that firms expect both cost and price increases to move higher in 2025, with year-ahead inflation expectations rising from 3 percent last year at this time to 3.5 among manufacturing firms and 4 percent among service firms, though longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored at around 3 percent. https://nyfed.org/41DA8A1
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Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation went up to 2.9 percent in January from 2.6 percent in December (revised up from 2.3 percent). The 68 percent probability band is (2.5, 3.3). Explore the data: https://nyfed.org/3NY8FCh
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The natural rate of interest, commonly called “r-star,” is the real, inflation-adjusted interest rate expected to prevail when supply and demand in the economy are in balance and inflation is stable. In today's post, the authors create new “synthetic real-time” estimates of r-star in the U.S. from the Laubach-Williams (2003) and Holston-Laubach-Williams (2017) models, using vintage datasets. These estimates enable apples-to-apples comparisons of the behavior of real-time r-star estimates over the past quarter century. https://nyfed.org/43g6K4b
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We updated estimates of the natural rate of interest, or r-star, and related variables for the United States through 2024:Q4 from the Laubach-Williams (LW) model. Explore the charts: https://nyfed.org/3MY3FwS
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Last week, we welcomed the U.S. Naval War College Advanced Strategist Program to our Museum and Learning Center. The Advanced Strategist Program is a specialized track for service members skilled in formulating, developing, and executing strategy at leadership levels. Participants from the U.S. Navy, U.S. Army, U.S. Army National Guard, U.S. Air Force, and U.S. Department of State joined us to learn more and discuss our responsibilities in monetary policy, financial services, supervision, and research to make the U.S. economy stronger and the financial system more stable for all. We also had the opportunity to bond over our common mission of service to the American people.
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The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2025:Q1 is 2.9%, with the 50% probability interval at [2.0, 4.0] and the 68% interval at [1.4, 4.5]. Explore the data: https://nyfed.org/3LbPEur
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Catch up with Kartik Athreya as he answers questions about his experiences in his first year as director of research at the New York Fed. In today's post, Kartik discusses some of the unique aspects of being a New York Fed economist, ways that researchers have responded to the pandemic, and the topics that have most resonated with him over the past year. https://nyfed.org/4h1vv7w
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In this post, the second in a two-part series, the authors explore the sources of global inflation trends, which they believe can be traced to factors that may result from correlated or global shocks. The authors find that most of the movement in inflation trends since the pandemic’s onset were due to adverse supply shocks, and that if central banks had fully committed to offset demand shocks, they would have achieved a modest reduction in global inflation at the cost of a very large contraction in global growth. https://nyfed.org/41lF4bo
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A key feature of the post-pandemic inflation surge was the strong correlation among inflation rates across sectors, both in U.S. and other advanced economies. In this post, the first in a two-part series, the authors explore the common features of inflation patterns using an extension of the Multivariate Core Inflation Trend (MCT) model. They find that the slow-moving trends seen in U.S. inflation dynamics are not U.S.-specific but are shared by other countries as well—both over a pre-pandemic and post-pandemic sample. https://nyfed.org/3EYcK7t