Minnesota has the lowest coronavirus infection rate in the country, Gov. Tim Walz said Monday, but he emphasized that now is not the time for complacency.
Data indicate the state, with 986 confirmed cases as of Monday, has an infection rate of 17 per 100,000 residents, according to Walz.
“We’re not resting on those laurels,” Walz said, pointing out that Minnesota has been “blinded by the lack of testing” due to a scarcity of supplies. “We’re preparing for what will come — a surge to our hospitals, a burden on those emergency rooms and the risk to our neighbors.”
Walz said he is continuing to gather information and expects to announce a decision mid-week about his Stay-At-Home order, which is scheduled to go through Friday, and is intended to slow the advance of COVID-19.
“I know that the unknowns in this make it so frustrating, so we’re trying to make sure that we are deliberate in our thinking,” Walz said.
LOOKING AT MODELING
Modeling created by a team at the University of Washington’s medical school previously forecast deaths in Minnesota would be fewer than 1,300 by early August, but new information released by the team on Sunday projected 625 deaths in Minnesota by early August.
Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm said Monday that the methodology includes “optimistic assumptions” because “it assumes a level of stay at home social distancing that we just really could not, as a practical matter, expect to see in the United States or in Minnesota.”
The University of Washington modeling doesn’t project a shortage of hospital beds in Minnesota, but Walz said Monday, “I can’t afford to be too short and I can’t afford to be too late.”
“… I am still not comfortable that we have all of the ICU beds, all of the ventilators and all of the personal protective equipment that will come,” Walz continued.
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A University of Minnesota model, which was completed based on minimal and preliminary information in March, envisioned what would have happened if the state had done little and had returned “to normal.” Under that scenario, the number of seriously ill would exceed the state’s capacity of intensive care unit beds within five weeks or so, and the death toll in Minnesota could reach as high as 74,000.
That model also projected that, under the measures Walz took, the Minnesota death toll would be tens of thousands fewer.
Malcolm said researchers knew they could improve the model as information has been gathered in Minnesota about how many people have needed to be hospitalized, the average length of hospitalization and more. Walz will be briefed on the updated University of Minnesota modeling soon, Malcolm said Monday afternoon.
Walz said he and his leadership team will be using that data and other modeling to inform their decision-making.
ECONOMIC IMPACT
Walz talked to about 100 representatives from the biggest employers in the state on Monday morning, and says he plans to also communicate with small-business owners and labor groups.
As Walz considers an extension of the Stay-At-Home order, he said they’re assessing sector by sector, “Are there things that we could do that would keep it just as safe, would not add to the transmission rate, would not put at-risk populations at risk, and yet would allow some economic activity to continue on?”
Walz said they’re also examining how it’s gone so far — Minnesotans have done well in some areas and in others, such as social distancing in recreation areas, they have not.
President Donald Trump has extended social distancing guidelines through the end of April. Walz said Monday he will “let the data and the science drive us about how long” it needs to be in place in Minnesota.
Minnesota Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka said Monday he hopes Walz will lift his order.
“We will continue to build supplies to address the surge, assuming there is one, but I think it’s time to let people live their lives with the new reality of social distancing,” said Gazelka, R-Nisswa.
Walz said he doesn’t want to set up false hope about when his order will end nor does he want to set it too far out where “people get frustrated and say, ‘Well, how do you know?’ … We’ll try and strike that proper balance.”