California housing markets were voted “most likely to underperform” in a poll of market analysts.
Zillow and Pulsenomics LLC asked more than 100 real estate gurus to predict what would occur in 2020 housing markets. Collectively, this group saw U.S. home values up 2.8%.
As for 25 major local markets, those folks polled did not like what they saw in California, with the state home to five of the six U.S. metro areas with the poll’s worst outlooks. Here’s what was revealed …
San Francisco: 24% of those gurus polled forecast the market to outperform the nation but 64% foresaw underperformance. That’s adds up to a “net” negative-40-point forecast, bottom of the barrel nationally.
San Jose: 23% see outperformance; 61% see underperformance; so a “net” negative-38-point forecast, second worst nationally.
Los Angeles-Orange County: 20% see outperformance; 55% see underperformance; “net” negative 35 points, third worst.
Sacramento: 21% see outperformance; 52% see underperformance; “net” negative 31 points, No. 21 of 25.
Inland Empire: 21% see outperformance; 47% see underperformance; “net” negative 26 points — that’s No. 20.
San Diego: 25% see outperformance; 39% see underperformance; “net” negative 14 points, No. 18.
Best bets according to this poll?
Austin was tops with 83% of the gurus seeing outperformance vs. only 7% forecasting underperformance. That’s a “net” positive 76 points. Then came Charlotte with 59% seeing outperformance vs. no call for underperformance. That’s a “net” positive 59 points.
“Many West Coast markets hit an affordability ceiling that set off declining home values in the most expensive of these,” said Zillow economist Skylar Olsen. “Indeed, this price correction — a clap back from having appreciated with too much exuberance in the recent past — pushes many previously hot markets to the bottom of our experts’ list. At the top of the list are metros still providing relative affordability and thriving, amenity-rich communities that appeal to younger adults willing to make a move.”
