The pandemic continues to recede, but Oregonians seem to be feeling worse and worse.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents to a new poll from DHM Research say they’re worried about their own finances. That’s on par with the gloomiest numbers in the pandemic’s early days.
Sixty percent say Oregon’s economic conditions are poor, a sharp increase from last summer when just about half rated the economy poorly.
What’s got Oregonians feeling so rotten?
Inflation is the chief suspect. Even though price increases have cooled considerably from last summer, inflation is still running around 6% annually – nearly triple the pre-pandemic rate.
Rising rents, grocery expenses and utility bills are wiping out much of what Oregonians saved during 2020 and 2021, when people were going out less and when federal stimulus checks were beefing up bank accounts. That means more people are living close to the edge.
Unemployment is climbing, too. While still low by historical standards at 4.8%, Oregon’s jobless rate has been rising steadily for nearly a year.
After notching very few layoffs in 2021 and 2022, the state has recorded a rapid string of job cuts this winter across a broad spectrum of Oregon industries from technology to manufacturing to retail. Intel, Gunderson, Walmart and Blount Fine Foods are among those handing out pink skips.
Half of Oregonians say the economy is getting worse, compared to 19% who felt that way in 2019.
Still, there are signs that the economy may be better than it feels.
Oregon added 71,000 jobs last year, the second-fastest growth since 1990. Statewide employment is already above its pre-pandemic peak.
Oregon private-sector wages rose by 8% last year, according to state data, and the national inflation rate fell to about 6% last month. State economists, who had been forecasting a mild recession, now say a soft landing is more likely.
The economic recovery remains exceedingly delicate, though, as this month’s bank failures illustrated. Rising interest rates, the war in Ukraine, tensions with China or a default on federal debt could shock the economy and send it spiraling downward.
The latest poll numbers show Oregonians are picking up on that fragility and feeling it in their own pocketbooks.
This is Oregon Insight, The Oregonian’s weekly look at the numbers behind the state’s economy. View past installments here.
-- Mike Rogoway | mrogoway@oregonian.com |
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