The Oregon Health Authority on Friday reported 314 new coronavirus cases and three more deaths, with new state modeling outlining the potential for a steady increase in infections in the weeks ahead.
State officials say daily infections could hit 800 to 1,700 by October 22, with 270 to 570 of those identified in the official case tally.
The state’s modeling has frequently proven not to match the actual outcome, but it does offer some insight into the apparent trajectory of the pandemic.
The modeling, used for planning purposes, suggests that coronavirus' spread may get worse if more Oregonians don’t take steps to reduce transmission.
Dr. Dean Sidelinger, the state health officer and state epidemiologist, said the modeling is generally “discouraging.” But he remained optimistic that Oregonians can more consistently wear face masks, limit gatherings and take other steps to reverse course.
Sidelinger said the state’s plan is to promote individual responsibility and not pursue renewed restrictions unless absolutely necessary.
“All policy options are on the table if we see huge increases in cases,” he said, adding: “We haven’t gotten there yet, and I don’t think we’re anywhere near there.”
The state’s modeling estimated Oregon had 127,400 cumulative infections through Sept. 24, with 32,800 of those diagnosed.
Officials modeled three scenarios for the weeks ahead, assuming increased transmission in each based on recent trends through Sept. 24.
The optimistic scenario projects 800 cases a day by Oct. 22, with 270 diagnosed. Cumulative infections would rise to 148,000.
The middle scenario projects 1,180 cases a day by Oct. 22, with 390 diagnosed. Cumulative infections would rise to 158,000.
The pessimistic scenario projects 1,700 cases a day by Oct. 22, with 570 diagnosed. Cumulative infections would rise to 172,000.
“I don’t think that’s where we’re going,” Sidelinger said of the pessimistic forecast.
The reproductive numbers for each of the scenarios, or the average amount of people who would be infected by an existing infection, were 1.04, 1.12 and 1.17.
Sidelinger said the rise of cases in September is likely linked to Labor Day activities and, to a much lesser degree, transmission among people forced to relocate because of wildfires, among other things.
State officials have identified instances where someone who stayed in a fire shelter was later diagnosed with coronavirus, he said, but officials have not yet found any link of spread to other people who stayed at the same facility.
Labor Day marks the third holiday that has been followed by rising case counts in Oregon. State officials have already discouraged door to door trick-or-treating for Halloween.
Sidelinger said state officials are unlikely to recommend Oregonians skip family gatherings for Thanksgiving, opting instead to provide guidance for how people can gather as safely as possible – such as limiting group size.
Where the new cases are by county: Baker (1), Benton (8), Clackamas (15), Clatsop (3), Columbia (1), Coos (2), Deschutes (4), Douglas (3), Hood River (1), Jackson (13), Jefferson (1), Josephine (8), Klamath (4), Lane (39), Lincoln (1), Linn (6), Malheur (12), Marion (37), Morrow (1), Multnomah (59), Polk (5), Umatilla (12), Wasco (2), Washington (66) and Yamhill (10).
New fatalities: Oregon’s 561st death linked to coronavirus is an 80-year-old Wasco County woman with underlying health conditions. She tested positive Sept. 16 and died Sept. 28 at her residence.
The state’s 562nd fatality is an 83-year-old Lane County man with underlying medical conditions. He tested positive Aug. 27 and died Sept. 30 at his residence.
Oregon’s 563rd death is an 84-year-old Marion County man with underlying health conditions. He tested positive Sept. 21 and died Sept. 30 at Salem Hospital.
The prevalence of infections: State officials reported 285 new confirmed infections out of 5,332 people tested, equaling a 5.3% positivity rate.
Who got infected: New confirmed or presumed infections grew among the following age groups: 0-9 (16); 10-19 (38); 20-29 (68); 30-39 (56); 40-49 (48); 50-59 (38); 60-69 (18); 70-79 (7); 80 and older (7).
Who’s in the hospital: The state Friday reported 130 Oregonians with confirmed coronavirus infections are currently in the hospital, down two from Thursday. Oregon remains well below its capacity, with hundreds of hospital beds and ventilators available.
Since it began: Oregon has reported 34,163 confirmed or presumed infections and 563 deaths, among the lowest totals in the nation. To date, 695,616 Oregonians have been tested.
-- Brad Schmidt; bschmidt@oregonian.com; 503-294-7628; @_brad_schmidt