University of Kentucky research: Beshear's Healthy At Home orders saved thousands of lives

Sarah Ladd
Louisville Courier Journal

Gov. Andy Beshear's "Healthy At Home" guide to social distancing in the coronavirus pandemic has saved more than 2,000 lives, according to a new study published by the University of Kentucky's Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise

The study predicts that, if the state had only relied on voluntary social distancing and hadn't taken steps to restrict in-person activities, Kentucky would have had 44,482 confirmed cases of the virus by April 25 and more than 2,000 additional people would have died. 

Kentucky, as of April 28, has 4,375 confirmed cases and 225 deaths. 

The stay-at-home measures were most effective in Kentucky's efforts to flatten the coronavirus curve, the study found.

Read more:Do Ohio, Kentucky have enough coronavirus testing to reopen? Not even close, experts say.

The second most effective measure was the closing of restaurants, bars, gyms and related businesses, while school closures and event bans weren't found to be economically or statistically significant without shelter-in-place orders. 

"Certainly COVID-19 can spread at schools and group events, but that does not imply that closing/banning them slows the spread," the study's authors wrote. "The effect depends on what individuals do in the absence of these activities." 

Live coronavirus updates:Kentucky Air National Guard to honor workers fighting COVID-19

Coronavirus map:How many coronavirus cases are in Kentucky? Where are they?

“These results suggest that Kentucky policymakers should be cautious when opening up the economy” Dr. Charles Courtemanche, ISFE's director and a coauthor of the study, said in a statement. "Returning to partial restrictions without a broader shelter-in-place directive may not be enough to contain the spread of the virus.

"However, the public health benefits from strong social distancing restrictions need to continue to be weighed against the massive economic losses that disproportionately affect low-wage sectors of the economy.”

Read the report below:

Reach breaking news reporter Sarah Ladd at sladd@courier-journal.com. Follow her on Twitter at @ladd_sarah. Support strong local journalism by subscribing today: courier-journal.com/subscribe.