Oregonians are quitting their jobs in droves, often with nothing new lined up

This is Oregon Insight, The Oregonian’s weekly look at the numbers behind the state’s economy. View past installments here.

Take this job and…well, you know.

Approximately 58,000 Oregonians handed in their notice in August, according to federal data, up 18% in a single month and near an all-time high. Three times more Oregonians quit their jobs that month than were fired or laid off, double the average ratio over the past decade.

A similar trend is playing out in national data, a phenomenon sometimes called “The Great Resignation,” although the nationwide increase in quitting didn’t happen as abruptly as in Oregon.

The wave of worker departures exacerbating the tight hiring market that has been squeezing employers across the state since spring. Businesses who were struggling to hire are now also contending with their current employees walking out the door.

Many of Oregon’s quitters are leaving for other jobs, but state data for September shows that more than 11,000 of them weren’t. They weren’t retiring, either, or taking time off to stay home with the kids.

They just quit.

The number of people quitting without new jobs is soaring at Oregon’s fastest rate in at least two decades, up an astonishing 40% since July.

There’s no definitive explanation for Oregon’s sudden exodus. But Gail Krumenauer, economist at the Oregon Employment Department, sees some clues.

The number of Oregonians quitting their jobs actually started picking up last spring, just as the number of job openings jumped amid a rush of hiring as pandemic-era business restrictions eased.

With employers advertising $2,000 signing bonuses, raising their wages and advertising for workers on TV, Krumenauer said workers realize there’s another job – and maybe a better one – waiting for them if they walk away from their current post.

“I am confident that this is one of those times when you’re going to be able to jump back into the labor force and find a job,” Krumenauer said.

While Oregon doesn’t have data on which industries are shedding the most workers, Krumenauer said, national figures show hospitality workers were more than twice as likely to leave their jobs as workers overall.

That fits with other figures that show Oregon restaurants, bars and hotels haven’t bounced back from the pandemic nearly as fast as other fields.

Generally speaking, Krumenauer said, people who quit their jobs aren’t eligible for unemployment benefits. So the people leaving their jobs are typically going without an income. But they may be in a better position to do so now, thanks to federal stimulus payments that fattened savings accounts during the pandemic.

And they’re probably not quitting because of vaccine mandates, Krumenauer said. Few such requirements had kicked in by the time the quitting picked up, and the September numbers don’t capture the recent state and schools mandates.

Even with the huge increase in quitting, the total number of people leaving their jobs is still a little below where it was in 2019, when Oregon’s labor market was near its strongest point on record.

At the least, Krumenauer said, the sharp increase in people leaving their jobs suggests more workers are feeling good about the economy.

“It’s generally been a healthy sign when quits are going up,” she said.

-- Mike Rogoway | mrogoway@oregonian.com | twitter: @rogoway |


      

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