By Aaron Allen, The Seattle Medium
As we enter into the third year of the COVID-19 crisis, public health officials are cautiously optimistic about the future and possible end to the pandemic. During a press briefing last week, Dr. Jeff Duchin, Health Officer for Public Health – Seattle King County, expressed a sense of hopefulness in light of the recent downward trend in cases.
“To start I just want to express my tremendous relief to see our case numbers falling since January 10,” says Duchin. “I really hope this decline continues so that we can move to a more sustainable and less disruptive and long-term strategy to limit the harm of this virus.”
Yet, despite the good news, health officials warn that the number of those contracting COVID, especially among the unvaccinated, is still relatively high and our hospitals continue to struggle to help and treat all those affected, and that it is still not possible to predict the course of this pandemic with any certainty.
“Our healthcare system colleagues this week characterized the ongoing strain to the healthcare system as massive,” said Duchin. “Key stressors are continuing at high patient loads in the face of critical staffing shortages…The stress on our healthcare providers is profound.”
According to Public Health – Seattle King County (PHSKC), COVID cases have decreased but are still high compared to this time last year and compared to 2020. The seven-day incident rates show 2200 cases reported down from 6400 but it is also important to remember that for each reported case there are 2-4 cases that go undetected or reported.
According to reports, there is an increasing number of less severe cases among the vaccinated and the unvaccinated continue to be at the highest risk for infection, complications, hospitalization and death. People who are not fully vaccinated are twice as likely to get COVID-19 infections, thirteen times more likely to be hospitalized and sixteen time more likely to die from the serious disease. From mid-December to mid-January during the Omicron surge, daily cases of COVID were up 700 percent. Currently, 50 people are hospitalized with COVID-19 every day in King County, an average of one person every twenty minutes. The good news is that these numbers are down 20 percent from our recent peak, down from 62 people on January 12.
During the briefing, Duchin continued to stress the benefits of being vaccinated and following mitigation protocols outlines by the health department and the CDC.
“Those that are vaccinated, especially with the booster continue to have excellent protection,” Duchin asserts.
“Get and upgrade your masks to the N95, KN95 or KF94 masks,” he encouraged. “Avoid large crowds and poorly ventilated areas. This is still the safest way to combat COVID-19.
“Isolate if you are ill, quarantine from others if you are not up to date on your vaccinations and getting tested regularly if you have symptoms or are exposed,” he added. “Together these strategies provide an added layer of protection and do not delay routine healthcare visits.”
While there is good news related to COVID, health officials warn that scientist have discovered a new Omicron variant labeled BA-2. BA-2, much like BA-1 (the original omicron), spreads rapidly, and it’s been detected in numerous countries and more than half of the U.S. states. So far, it has been detected at very small rates in Washington and King County.
Officials claim that BA-2 is 20-30 percent more transmissible than the BA-1. The good news, according to health officials, is that BA-2 does not cause serious illness and that current vaccines protect against both BA-1 and BA-2.
Duchin also took time during the briefing to discuss in general terms what is means when we move from a pandemic to an endemic as it relates to COVID.
“When people talk about the COVID pandemic ending and COVID becoming endemic I think what they are really saying is they believe the worst is behind us and there are good reasons why this may be true and I hope more than anything that it is,” says Duchin. “But it’s not a certainty and we shouldn’t assume that a variant that is worst than Delta or worse than Omicron won’t emerge in the future. The transition from pandemic to endemic won’t happen suddenly or by decree, but gradually as we move from an emerging and unfamiliar highly unpredictable pandemic to an endemic state that is more predictable with respect to COVID.”
“COVID-19 is clearly not over,” says Duchin. “But we are heading in the right direction. So, for now and for the coming weeks, this means keep doing what works. Get vaccinated and boosted. Improve indoor air quality. Use high quality face masks and respirators in public spaces. Limit gatherings in crowded and poorly ventilated indoor spaces and isolate and test, if possible, when you have symptoms.”
“There’s no guarantee that future variants will be mild. So, for this reason, we need to build COVID resilience and better future preparedness for COVID-19,” he concluded.
