McLeod-Skinner poised for rematch in congressional race

UPDATE: The Saturday event planned in Bend has been postponed after Jamie McLeod-Skinner tested positive for COVID-19. It will be rescheduled later this month, according to her campaign. 

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Terrebonne attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner has called a rally for Saturday afternoon in Bend for the apparent kickoff of her 2024 bid for a 5th Congressional District rematch against U.S. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, R-Happy Valley.

McLeod-Skinner supporters received an email Monday from Arrowhead Strategies, a Michigan-based campaign management and fundraising company run by Brittany Grimm, a former deputy finance director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. It called on McLeod-Skinner supporters to attend a "special announcement" at Worthy Brewing in Bend that starts at 3 p.m.

"Friend," the email said, "It's time for change in Oregon’s 5th congressional district. After review of the work we began last year, input from Oregonians and national leaders, and discussions with family and friends, Jamie McLeod-Skinner has a winning strategy for the change we need. She wants you to be the first to know."

The message also linked to the ACTBLUE fundraising website for Democrats.

McLeod-Skinner's campaign declined to comment further Wednesday.

McLeod-Skinner defeated incumbent U.S. Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Canby, in the 2022 Democratic primary, but lost to Chavez-DeRemer by 7,299 votes out of 351,233 cast in November.

Rep. Janelle Bynum, D-Clackamas, and Lynn Peterson, the president of Metro — the three-county elected government overseeing projects and programs for the greater Portland area — have announced they will seek the 5th district seat. Salem political activist Kevin Easton and Cameron Pahl, a software engineer with the Institute of Natural Resources in Portland, have also filed to run as Democrats.

Party strategies

All of the Democrats have said Chavez-DeRemer is politically out of step with what past voting patterns show is a moderate, slightly Democratic-leaning majority of voters in the district. Peterson said she was concerned about Chavez-DeRemer's "culture war" approach on issues.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has a squad of communications people in Washington who are rapidly responding to any attacks on Chavez-DeRemer, while launching their own critiques of 5th district Democratic challengers. Bynum pointed out she beat Chavez-DeRemer twice for a Portland suburban House seat, and could do it again in the congressional race.

A statement after Bynum's announcement called her the “handpicked candidate of extreme Democrats in Washington, D.C.”

On Capitol Hill, Chavez-DeRemer has been pushing GOP leaders to avoid tying the fate of the party's control of the House to the most high-profile conservative stalwarts such as Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Lauren Boebert of Colorado.

Chavez-DeRemer told the Washington Post last week that Republicans should put voters' economic concerns at the top of their agenda instead of divisive social issues pushed by the GOP's right-wing Freedom Caucus.

“If we don’t go back to the reason that we were elected, we won’t be here for very long, because if people don’t feel at home that you’re getting what you promised or what they thought you were listening to, they’re going to go start looking for somebody else,” Chavez-DeRemer said.

McLeod-Skinner's expected announcement on Saturday comes after a poll showing her winning the Democratic nomination over the current slate of primary opponents was leaked in late June. A copy of the poll of 400 voters by GBAO Strategies, a Washington D.C. firm used by Democratic candidates, was obtained by the Oregon Capital Chronicle. The website reported it showed McLeod-Skinner with 44% of the primary vote — nearly twice that of Bynum, with Peterson in third place.

McLeod-Skinner lost the Democratic primary for Oregon secretary of state to now-disgraced former Secretary of State Shemia Fagan in 2020. In 2018 she lost the race for Oregon's 2nd Congressional District to Rep. Greg Walden, R-Hood River. That district, now redrawn, is held by Cliff Bentz, R-Ontario.

Money talks

While congressional candidates can already create campaign finance committees with the Federal Election Commission, candidacies are not official until filed with the Oregon Secretary of State. The window for the 2024 election opens Sept. 14.

The 5th district was radically redrawn under the 2022 redistricting approved by the Legislature. Running from southern Portland, through Clackamas, Marion and Linn counties, it crosses the Cascades along U.S. Highway 20, takes in a tiny sliver of Jefferson County, then drops into Deschutes County to encircle most of Redmond and Bend.

According to the June 2023 voter registration statistics of the Oregon Secretary of State, the district now includes 528,781 registered voters. Democrats outnumber Republicans 169,205 to 144,800. But the largest group — 177,010 — are non-affiliated voters. Smaller parties make up the remainder, with the Independent Party having the largest chunk with 27,673 registered voters.

Because Oregon allows Democrats and Republicans to hold closed primaries, unaffiliated voters are shut out of the primary, scheduled for May 21, 2024. All voters cast ballots in the general election on Nov. 5, 2024.

McLeod-Skinner's hiring of Brittany Grimm and her Arrowhead Strategies operation shows fundraising will be a key early goal. After she defeated Schrader in the 2022 Democratic primary, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — the political arm of House Democrats — contributed $2 million to her campaign. But as GOP fundraising continued to flood funds into Chavez-DeRemer's bid, Democrats shifted the money to other close races. But the biggest financial snub came from Democratic national leaders, who gave no money from the House Majority PAC, run by then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

Many progressive Democrats blamed the money gap with helping hand the seat to Chavez-DeRemer, a key GOP pick-up in creating their 222-213 majority.

“This seat could have made the majority, but the national Democratic PACs walked away and left Jamie to twist in the wind," said Rob Duffey, spokesman for the Working Families Party, which endorsed McLeod-Skinner.

Republicans have continued to raise funds for Chavez-DeRemer, a need underlined by a report from Roll Call, a Washington, D.C. publication specializing in covering Congress, that rated Chavez-DeRemer as the ninth most vulnerable incumbent in 2024 of the 435 members of the U.S. House.

Chavez-DeRemer reports $635,559.33 in total funds since Jan. 1, including $465,472.67 in new contributions. The additional money breaks down to $151,022.67 in individual contributions, $314,450.00 from political action committees and $168,986.66 transferred from authorized committees.

Contributions to Chavez-DeRemer's campaign include $13,200 from Bend entrepreneur Tim Phillips, $3,300 from Las Vegas casino magnate Steve Wynn, $6,600 from Lake Oswego homebuilder Don Morrisette, $5,000 from Florida real estate manager Albert Cassidy, $5,000 from Georgia housing market executive John Hunt, $5,000 from Confederated Tribes of Siletz Indians.

Chavez-DeRemer received $132,485 from contributors living in Oregon, while just over $60,000 came from Florida, and just over $55,000 from California.

The current campaign finance report for Chavez-DeRemer, covers 2023 through May 1. Among the challengers, only Easton shows contributions: $4,646.49 total through March 31. Bynum and Peterson show no campaign funds because they entered the race after the first quarter financial deadline. The second quarter ended June 30 and candidates are required to submit a report on fundraising and spending by July 15.