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This week, we’re sharing a brief report on the November Revenue Forecast, an overview of the ballot measure types and topics to expect in 2024, well wishes for the holiday, a few upcoming town halls, and news highlights.

THE NOVEMBER REVENUE FORECAST

On November 15, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis released the Economic and Revenue Forecast for the fourth quarter of 2023

The forecast showed a trend toward the economy rebalancing. Though inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, pressures have eased. Because of this, along with slowing wage growth, productivity gains and an increase in Americans looking for work, most forecasters expect small interest rate cuts in the second half of 2024.

Oregon’s baseline outlook remains “effectively unchanged” from the third quarter forecast. Locally, economic growth has been driven by a return to full employment, stronger business investment and productivity gains. However, state revenues are way up from the previous forecast — according to the report, Gross General Fund revenues for the 2023-25 biennium are expected to reach nearly $26 billion. This is $274 million more than predicted in the September forecast, and $678 million more than we thought we’d have at the close of session forecast.

Oregon’s legislators expressed optimism about this continued growth. In a press release shared earlier this week, House Majority Leader Julie Fahey said that “this promising news means that we are well-positioned to invest in Oregonians going into the 2024 short legislative session.”

House Speaker Dan Rayfield also shared statements in a press release earlier this week, saying that “this stability is the key to developing legislation to address critical issues like access to mental health and addiction treatment, affordable housing, and sustainable childcare funding to enact during the February Legislative Session.”

In her statement, Senate Majority Leader Kate Lieber said “it’s great to see that Oregon’s economy is stabilizing and the pressure from inflation should be easing up. Now, we need to make sure this data matches up to reality for Oregonians in every corner of the state.” 

Senate President Rob Wagner’s press release stated that the forecast “shows Oregon’s economy is stable and it is clear the state will be able to continue to deliver the investments made during the 2023 session. As inflation wanes, we want to continue to reduce costs for Oregonians, make life more affordable, and grow the middle class.” 

The next revenue forecast will come out on February 7, 2024. That is the forecast legislators will use to balance and make adjustments to the state’s budget, if needed.

BALLOT MEASURES AND INITIATIVES

There are three types of ballot measures you’ll see in the upcoming election year — ballot initiatives, referendums and referrals. While referrals come directly out of the State Legislature, referendums and initiatives are citizen-led. Oregon is one of fifteen states that allows initiatives for constitutional amendments, statutes and veto referendums. Other states have stricter initiative options, while some have no opportunity for citizen engagement at all. Only 26 states total have some form of citizen-initiated ballot measures.

There are two types of citizen initiatives: a constitutional initiative and a statutory initiative, with both beginning as a petition. Each petition’s first steps are gathering and submitting 1,000 sponsorship signatures. After the submission of 1,000 signatures, the petitions are forwarded from the Elections Division to the Attorney General’s office for the drafting of the ballot title. The ballot title summarizes the petition and its major effect.

Once the ballot title process is complete, the chief petitioners can begin signature gathering for the petition. The measure can only be placed on the ballot if it reaches the required number of signatures at least four months prior to the next general election. This number of valid signatures required is based on the number of votes cast for governor in the last election. For a constitutional initiative, this number must be at least 8% of the number of votes cast. For a statutory initiative, this number must be at least 6% of the number of votes cast.

So far, there are 52 ballot measure initiatives listed on the Secretary of State’s website. Twenty of them have Certified Ballot Titles. Filing dates started as early as September of 2021, with the most recent initiative filed on November 20, 2023.

The second type of citizen lead ballot measure is a referendum. A statewide referendum allows people to adopt or reject a bill passed by the Oregon Legislature. A referendum can only be filed when a non-emergency bill becomes an act, after being either signed into law or after the deadline has been passed for a bill to be signed/vetoed. 

Instead of circulating with the final ballot title, which is only prepared if the referendum qualifies to the ballot, referendum petitions are circulated using the final measure summary from the act or last engrossed bill. The deadline for the signature verification is 90 days after the Legislature adjourns sine die. For a referendum petition, valid signatures totaling at least 4% of the total votes cast for governor at the last election is required.

The last type of ballot measure is a legislative referral. These are directly sent to the ballot from the Legislature. Both chambers of the Legislature must vote to refer the measure, and the referral cannot be vetoed by the Governor. This includes any constitutional change, which requires voter approval.

There are three legislative referrals that will be on the 2024 ballot. As we mentioned in last month’s MPA Update, one of the referrals is a constitutional amendment: "The Oregon Impeachment of Elected State Executives Amendment," which came before the Legislature in 2023 and was referred to the voters with strong bipartisan support. This was referred through HJR 16 in the 2023 session. It would add an impeachment clause for state executives, something that Oregon is the only state without. 

Also on the Oregon ballot for 2024 will be the implementation of ranked choice voting for statewide elected officials, the president and members of Congress. This was referred through House Bill 2004 in the 2023 Legislative Session. Ranked choice voting allows voters to rank their candidates based on preference, instead of just choosing their top candidate. If no single candidate receives more than 50% of first-preference votes, the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated and their votes are distributed to other candidates. That process continues until a candidate has amassed a majority of the vote. Benton County and the City of Corvallis already use ranked choice voting in local elections, and Portland will begin using it for City Council elections in November of 2024.

The third ballot measure referred to the ballot in 2024 is a constitutional amendment to create an “Independent Public Service Compensation Commission.” The commission would set pay for statewide elected officials, lawmakers, judges and elected district attorneys. The low salaries of statewide elected officials have long been a discussion point in Oregon. This measure will allow voters to decide on creating this commission, but does not state the size of the body or who would be responsible in choosing who holds the seats. The measure was referred to the voters after SJR 34 was passed in the 2023 session.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM MAHONIA PUBLIC AFFAIRS

Our team is celebrating you with gratitude this week. Whoever you are, and however you found yourself subscribed to this newsletter, you play an important role in the work we get to do — and we are so thankful we get to do it.

From all of us at Mahonia Public Affairs, we wish you a restful and joyful holiday weekend!

UPCOMING EVENTS

November 28: Oak Grove Constituent Coffee with Rep. Gamba (details here)

December 2: Milwaukie Constituent Coffee with Rep. Gamba (details here)

December 2: Constituent Coffee with Sen. Dembrow (details here)

January 10-12: January Legislative Committee Days

Have an upcoming event you'd like us to promote? Is there a Town Hall we're missing? Send us an email!

SUGGESTED READING AND NEWS HIGHLIGHTS

Senate Republicans: Senate Republicans Ask Governor Kotek to Declare an Emergency on Measure 110, Convene Special Session

Oregon Capital Chronicle: State revenue forecast shows stable economy as Oregon lawmakers prepare for 2024 session 

Oregon Capital Chronicle: Shana McConville Radford to be first director of tribal affairs for Oregon governor

OPB: Oregon lawmakers poised to address crises with increased funds next year

Oregon Capital Chronicle: With Findley retiring, former Oregon House GOP leader McLane eyes comeback

OPB: Oregon is placing foster children in unlicensed short-term rental homes and paying millions to do so

Oregon Capital Chronicle: Lily Morgan will resign from Oregon House for city manager job

OPB: Oregon gives out $35M grants to programs training workers for high-demand industries

Oregon Capital Chronicle: Child care program faces potential $123 million shortfall and indefinite waiting list

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