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Predicted Oregon COVID hospitalization surge revised significantly downward


FILE - Staff at Oregon Health & Science University prepare to perform a surgical procedure on the ICU floor. (Kristyna Wentz-Graff/OPB, File)
FILE - Staff at Oregon Health & Science University prepare to perform a surgical procedure on the ICU floor. (Kristyna Wentz-Graff/OPB, File)
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Health officials predicted the omicron variant would overwhelm Oregon hospitals with a peak of up to 3,000 patients a day in the new year, but that dire forecast has been revised down, to a little more than 1,200.

Health officials adjusted their predictions based on expected vaccinations, prevention methods and new data from Europe.

That 3,000-number forecast two weeks ago was a vision of what could happen if nobody took any action, like vaccination or masking.

But now, that prediction from Oregon Health & Science University’s Analytics Director Dr. Peter Graven has dropped to about 1,200 at peak time, which is mid-February.

The new prediction is based on whether people take action to try to stop the spread of COVID, especially with the omicron variant spreading fast.

Without action, the projection can go as high as 1,700 hospitalized.

OHSU says a lot goes into that forecast, including expected booster shots, behavior modifications and new data from Denmark, which shows hospitalization rates are 70% lower with omicron compared to the delta variant.

Health officials say this means we need to continue our efforts to keep those numbers down.

“Everybody do what they can to reduce risk of transmission, especially to those people who are more vulnerable, our older population, or people who are immune compromised,” said Dr. John Townes, infectious disease physician at OHSU. “Those are the people we especially need to protect, because they’re the ones likely to end up in the hospital.”

But the new projection, 1,250, is still a very high number and still expected to overwhelm hospitals.

"The surge that almost broke the backs of hospitals already was only 1,200, and so we’re above that; they’re scary numbers to me," Graven.

He said the number's not as high now, but it's still a cause for concern.

"Unfortunately, there’s a lot of vaccinated people being hospitalized throughout the country. So I would say the big news, or the big change, in the story from the delta wave to the omicron wave, is really about the fact that vaccinated people, while they are more likely to get infected than before, and they also are, it is possible to be hospitalized,” he said.

But that is not a reason to ignore the vaccine.

"It can help a ton if you’re boosted. That’s going to reduce the odds of being infected, and reduce the odds of being hospitalized," said Graven. "The rate of hospitalization is much higher amongst the unvaccinated.”

To see more of what Dr. Graven said, watch here:

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