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A Hot Summer Is on Tap for the Gulf of Maine

-A special report by Dr. Jake Kritzer & Tom Shyka
What are we seeing?
The value of real-time ocean observations is likely clear, but the longevity of the NERACOOS observing system and data are what allow us to understand the magnitude of changes we are seeing. The NERACOOS Ocean Climate Tool shows that temperatures at Buoy I on the Eastern Maine Shelf were warmer than average in November and December 2020 but still within the range of values recorded over the past 20 years. However, beginning in early January 2021, temperatures have often topped the previous maximums. Soon after, temperatures at Buoy E on the Central Maine Shelf began to show a similar trend. Temperature spikes during winter can be followed by spring and summer measurements within the norm—a pattern we saw back in 2013. This year, however, looks more like 2012, when high winter temperatures foretold an “ocean heat wave” that lasted the entire year. This summer is shaping up to be another hot one in the Gulf of Maine.
Why is it happening?
Although New Englanders recently endured early June air temperatures more typical of July and August, this past winter was not especially warm, making it unlikely that the Gulf of Maine warmed up due to atmospheric heating. Rather, satellite images from mid- to late January show exceptionally high water temperatures along the edge of the continental shelf and into the northern Gulf of Maine. We’re seeing warming throughout the water column, not just at the surface, which suggests these trends are in fact driven by Atlantic Ocean currents, not atmospheric conditions. By late May, the unusually warm water had reached the western Gulf of Maine, tracking the dominant counterclockwise circulation pattern.
Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Gulf of Maine January 17-24, 2021 (left) and May 17-21, 2021 (right)
What does it mean?
High temperatures can change the behavior and biology of marine organisms both large and small. Extreme heat can affect fisheries and aquaculture production, the behavior of birds and marine mammals, and the functioning of marine ecosystems. The effects don’t stop at the water either. John Cannon, the Senior Meteorologist and Marine Program Leader with the National Weather Service office in Gray, Maine, pointed out in an email that, “Warm water temperatures influence our wind forecasts (and other forecasts) through […] temperature gradients, sea breeze circulations, etc.” Indeed, one of the most poorly understood outcomes of global climate change is its influence on wind patterns, as examined recently by Marina Schauffler in The Maine Monitor. We’ll be watching to see whether these ocean temperature trends continue and keeping an eye out for other unusual phenomena our observing systems might detect.

We thank Dr. Dave Townsend at the University of Maine for his insights on interpreting these trends.
If you have any questions about the marine heatwave or NERACOOS observations, email jake@neracoos.org
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