From climate change to downtown Seattle, markers to watch in 2024

My last column of the year looks ahead at what might be coming over the next 12 months. As regular readers know, I don’t make predictions. Somewhere along the way I left my crystal ball in the desk drawer of a later-demolished newsroom.

Rather, I set markers for some of the most important issues and challenges ahead based on what we know as 2023 winds down.

As always, I’ll begin with an audit of the markers I laid down for this year.

I was sorry to be correct that the costs of human-caused climate change would continue to rise. As of October, the World Economic Forum (which hosts the Davos event) estimated the warming planet was costing $16 million per hour.

Climate change will be a marker to put down for as long as I’m writing this column. So, watch for additional costs and nasty surprises in 2024. We’re finishing the hottest year in possibly the past 125,000.

Based on interviews with scientists who study climate, The New York Times reported that “One hypothesis, perhaps the most troubling, is that the planet’s warming is accelerating, that the effects of climate change are barreling our way more quickly than before.”

Don’t assume the Pacific Northwest is immune to rising temperatures and sea-level rise. We already know about the annual forest fires bringing smoky air into Seattle.

My marker for Boeing was mixed, with certification of the 737 MAX moving ahead and new orders for that airliner and the 787, but concern over retirement of experienced engineers. That turned out fairly on target.

Worry about tech layoffs at the end of 2022 didn’t evolve into major cuts this year. And the Federal Reserve appears to have pulled off a “soft landing” — controlling inflation without bringing on a recession.

For 2024, the markers focus on issues close to home and abroad.

On the national level, the presidential election will be dominant, particularly if Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination and the general election. To put it mildly, he operates outside the norms of our experiment in self-government. On the economic front, Trump’s bent toward authoritarianism would create uncertainty, to say the least.

Internationally, the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues. Add to that the Israel-Hamas war. And “great power competition” between the United States and China.

Beijing faces serious problems at home, not least a slowdown in growth, continued trouble in its real estate sector and an aging population. Washington state’s largest trading partner is China, so anything that goes bad in the relationship between the two nations is sure to affect us. Mark that to watch next year.

Closer to home, a new City Council will be in office next year. One hopes it will be more constructive than the far-left council majority that attacked Amazon, the city’s largest employer; failed to address crime; and resisted Mayor Bruce Harrell’s downtown activation plan.

Another marker for 2024 will be the condition of downtown Seattle, which had been the location of the city’s largest employment base and business taxes before 2020 and hasn’t been replaced by other parts of the city.

I was stunned to read a New York Times story that referred to the city losing more than 2,300 businesses downtown since the beginning of 2020. A walk down boarded-up Third Avenue makes that easy to believe.

Yet that doesn’t jibe with the numbers maintained by the Downtown Seattle Association. Rather, it is based on net number of changes of address filings with the U.S. Postal Service. It’s not only street-level or brick-and-mortar businesses but includes anyone with a mailing address in Seattle (this was reported in more depth by the Puget Sound Business Journal).

According to the Downtown Seattle Association’s Recovery Dashboard, return to office measured by daily worker traffic totaled more than 86,000 as of November. This marked the third-highest daily average since the onset of COVID-19 and the seventh straight month where foot traffic has been above 50% compared with the same period in 2019. Amazon’s return-to-office mandate has provided a big boost.

Residential construction is a major component of downtown’s comeback. More than 106,000 people live in the central core, a record.

According to a DSA report, Seattle leads West Coast peer cities in the number of multifamily projects and total residential units under construction. We have double the number of units under construction in Los Angeles.

Downtown Seattle Association President Jon Scholes said in a statement: “People want to be close to the arts and cultural venues, restaurants, retail, entertainment and new amenities on the way like a redeveloped waterfront. … Getting these fundamentals right will keep bringing more people to downtown and that will accelerate our continued revitalization.”

So, a marker on downtown is worth making.

Another is whether the area’s economy will continue its strength. According to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis, real gross domestic product for King County grew 4% from 2021 to 2022. That’s among the best performances in the nation. Nothing looms to stop this in 2024.

Finally, technology continues to evolve, especially with artificial intelligence. Microsoft and Amazon are in the forefront of this field. The startups that were so abundant here in the 2010s have slowed down, although some are coming on the scene in AI and other fields. These are markers to watch, too.

What did I miss? As usual, the comments section awaits you.

Happy New Year and I’ll see you in 2024.