[Federal Register Volume 85, Number 133 (Friday, July 10, 2020)]
[Notices]
[Pages 41567-41569]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2020-14904]
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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Request for Comment on the Draft Prospectus of the Fifth National
Climate Assessment
AGENCY: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Office
of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), Department of Commerce
(DOC).
ACTION: Notice of request for public comment on the Fifth National
Climate Assessment.
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SUMMARY: With this notice, the U.S. Global Change Research Program
(USGCRP) seeks public comment on the proposed themes and framework of
the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) as indicated by the draft
prospectus presented here. Based on input received from this notice,
USGCRP will develop an annotated outline, which will be released for
public comment at a later date. A call for author nominations and
technical inputs will also be posted in one or more subsequent Federal
Register Notices. In addition to the proposed themes and framework,
this Federal Register Notice requests public comment on ways to make
the assessment information accessible and useful to multiple audiences;
specific types of detailed information on regional scales that would be
most useful to stakeholders; how to best
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describe risks and impacts, as well as potential opportunities to
reduce those risks and impacts on sectors of the economy and natural
and social systems; new approaches to topics addressed in previous
assessments; overarching themes that NCA5 should consider addressing;
and other relevant topics.
DATES: Comments must be submitted to the web address specified below
and received by August 10, 2020.
ADDRESSES: Comments from the public will be accepted electronically via
http://www.globalchange.gov/notices. Instructions for submitting
comments are available on the website. Submitters may enter text or
upload files in response to this notice.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Chris Avery, (202) 419-3474,
[email protected], U.S. Global Change Research Program.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: USGCRP is mandated under the Global Change
Research Act (GCRA) of 1990 to conduct a quadrennial National Climate
Assessment (NCA). The most recent, NCA4, was completed in 2018 and
delivered in two volumes: The Climate Science Special Report (CSSR,
science2017.globalchange.gov) and Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the
United States (NCA4, nca2018.globalchange.gov).
In addition to the two volumes of NCA4, other recent assessments by
the U.S. Government will inform NCA5, including the Second State of the
Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2, carbon2018.globalchange.gov); the Impacts
of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States
(health2016.globalchange.gov); and Climate Change, Global Food
Security, and the U.S. Food System (www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/FoodSecurity.htm).
NCA5 development will be transparent and inclusive, offering
opportunities for public participation throughout the process. The
production and review processes are designed to result in a report that
is authoritative, timely, relevant, and policy-neutral; valued by
authors and users; accessible to the widest possible audience; and
fully compliant with the GCRA.
Background information, additional details, and instructions for
submitting comments can be found at http://www.globalchange.gov/notices. Responses to this Request for Comment can be entered via this
website.
Note: The following is intended to be a high-level description
of the proposed themes and framework of NCA5. Subsequent Federal
Register Notices will provide additional details on the structure
and content of the report and opportunities for the public to review
and give feedback on the same.
Overarching Themes for NCA5
NCA5 will be GCRA compliant and will include a number of
overarching themes and perspectives that respond to needs and gaps
identified by NCA4. The following is a list of proposed themes for
NCA5:
[cir] Identification of advancements or improvements, relative to
NCA4, in scientific understanding of human-induced and natural
processes of global change and the resulting implications for the
United States.
[cir] Identification of vulnerable populations for climate-related
risks and potential impacts, a theme highlighted in multiple previous
assessments.
[cir] Characterization of scientific uncertainties associated with
key findings.
[cir] Characterization of current and future risks associated with
global change with quantifiable metrics, such as indicators, where
possible, and with the needs of multiple audiences in mind.
[cir] Emphasis on (1) near-term trends and projections that can
inform adaptation needs; (2) long-term projections that are more
scenario dependent; and (3) in some cases, timeframes past 2100, to be
consistent with the GCRA and to indicate anticipated legacy effects of
the human influence on the climate and oceans.
We seek comments on these proposed overarching themes, as well as
suggestions for potential additional overarching themes.
Proposed Framework for NCA5
What follows is a proposed high-level framework intended to guide
the scope and content for NCA5. Public comments are sought on all
aspects of this proposed framework. The proposed framework is presented
here in five parts: (1) Introduction and context for NCA5; (2)
foundational physical and biological science; (3) human health and
welfare, societal, and environmental areas that are vulnerable to a
changing climate; (4) regional and, where possible, sub-regional
analyses within the United States; and (5) information needed to inform
climate change adaptation, increased resiliency, and risk reduction.
This framework presents the anticipated scope and content of NCA5;
it is not an indicator of the final structure of the report.
1. Introduction and Context for NCA5
This content will describe the following:
[cir] Context for NCA5 as noted above, including the NCA's
relationship to complementary domestic and international assessment
efforts.
[cir] Advancements in science since NCA4, and discussion of the
scientific confidence and uncertainty associated with these findings,
as well as any new approaches or differences in scope relative to NCA4.
This information will include any special assessments completed or in
progress post-NCA4, in particular those under the auspices of USGCRP.
[cir] Changing global and national conditions that influence (1)
drivers of climate change, namely the activities that lead to emissions
and atmospheric buildup of greenhouse gas concentrations; and (2)
factors that affect resiliency and vulnerability, such as demographic
and land-use changes, behavioral changes, advances in technology, and
economic development.
[cir] The geographic scope (see Part 4) and the temporal scope
(i.e., historic to the next 25 to 100 years).
[cir] Risks to interconnected natural, built, and social systems,
which are increasingly vulnerable to cascading impacts of global change
that are often difficult to predict. For example, extreme weather and
climate-related impacts on one system can result in increased risks or
failures in other critical systems, including water resources, food
production and distribution, energy and transportation, and
international trade. However, with proper design and implementation,
increased connectivity may have salutary impacts on resiliency to,
response to, and recovery from extreme weather and climate-related
impacts.
[cir] Terms and their definitions used to describe confidence and
uncertainty levels associated with key statements and findings (and
accompanying traceable accounts), which may be similar to those used in
NCA4.
We seek public comment on the proposed introductory and contextual
material described above for NCA5.
2. Foundational Physical and Biological Science
NCA5 will assess the state of scientific evidence regarding the
physical and biological drivers of global change, with an emphasis on
advances in knowledge since NCA4. This section will include the
following:
[cir] Observations of changes in climate-related phenomena such as
atmospheric composition, radiative forcing,
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temperature, precipitation, climate variability, large-scale climate
modes (e.g., El Ni[ntilde]o events), drought, floods and associated
hydrologic events (e.g., streamflow, snowpack), sea-level rise and
other physical ocean changes, biogeochemistry of land and marine
systems, ocean acidification, extreme storms (e.g., hurricanes),
atmospheric rivers, polar changes (including permafrost and land-ice
dynamics), ice-sheet dynamics, and attribution of physical and
biophysical processes to human activities. Where appropriate,
descriptions of observed changes specific to the United States at
national and subnational scales.
[cir] Future projections of changes in Earth system processes based
on modeling results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
(CMIP). Treatment of future scenarios, and associated risks and impacts
as described below, will emphasize the most recent literature (i.e.,
CMIP6), with CMIP5 and other future scenarios included as determined by
the available literature.
We seek public comment on the proposed physical and biological
science framing described above for NCA5.
3. Human Health and Welfare, Societal, and Environmental
Vulnerabilities to a Changing Climate
The GCRA of 1990 requires that the NCA analyze ``the effects of
global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy
production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human
health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity.''
NCA5 will provide national-level overviews of observed and potential
effects and projected trends under a range of emissions scenarios in
these key areas of concern for people and the environment, with
supporting regional information, as described under Part 4.
To better understand global change, non-climatic trends (e.g.,
population changes) will be briefly discussed in order to set a broader
context within which the effects of climate change can be understood.
Current and future risks, impacts, (including differential impacts),
and benefits will be identified in each of these topic areas, using
quantifiable metrics, such as indicators, where possible. The impact of
extreme events in each area will be addressed where possible. In
addition, potential adaptive measures to minimize risks will be
described for each area, to the extent these are identified in the
published literature.
In addition to coverage of these mandated topics, the following
additional specific areas are proposed for inclusion in NCA5: Land
cover and land use change; forests; ecosystems and ecosystem services;
coasts; oceans and marine resources; built environment; urban systems;
air quality; effects on tribal and indigenous communities; economics;
and international effects, in particular those that may raise
environmental, humanitarian, trade, or security issues for the United
States.
We seek public comment on the proposed areas of focus for NCA5 as
described above and welcome input on other topics that should be
considered for inclusion.
4. Regional Analyses Within the United States
This section will describe regional-level perspectives for each of
the areas identified in Part 3, allowing for discussion of topics of
interest to each region.
The proposed regional analyses for NCA5 will follow the model
developed for NCA4, which included the following regions of the United
States: Northeast, Southeast, U.S. Caribbean, Midwest, Northern Great
Plains, Southern Great Plains, Northwest, Southwest, Alaska, and
Hawai'i and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (see
nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/front-matter-guide/#fig-1). Areas of
focus will vary across regions based on the availability of research
and the regional identification of needs.
As appropriate and where available, the perspectives described in
Part 4 will also highlight state-level information, as well as urban
and rural case studies to showcase climate trends, potential risks, and
resiliency planning with local specificity.
We seek public comment on the proposed regional breakout for NCA5,
the level of detail to be provided at regional scales, sectors or
topics to focus on within particular regions, and overarching themes
that should inform the regional analyses of NCA5.
5. Information Needed To Support Climate Change Adaptation, Increased
Resiliency, and Risk Reduction
Part 5 will identify needs and opportunities for adaptive measures
and resiliency planning in the face of observed and projected changes
in climate. NCA5 is not a policy document, and therefore will not
evaluate policy measures, actions, instruments, or mechanisms to
deliver or incentivize either adaptation or mitigation responses at any
level of government. Rather, the intention of NCA5 is to inform the
Nation, and different regions within the Nation, about near-term
adaptation and resiliency needs over the next few decades that are
likely to persist regardless of emissions pathway. Adaptation and
resiliency needs and opportunities will be drawn from relevant
information from Parts 2, 3, and 4 as outlined above, including
evidence of successful measures, and discussed in the context of
literature described below.
Review of the following is proposed for inclusion in Part 5:
[cir] Recent literature on economic impacts across sectors,
regions, and levels of warming.
[cir] Recent literature on the potential for greenhouse gas
emissions mitigation through natural and technological solutions.
[cir] Recent literature describing case studies (see Part 4), where
relevant.
Links to U.S. government decision-support tools (e.g., the U.S.
Climate Resilience Toolkit, toolkit.climate.gov) will also be included
here, where relevant.
We seek public comment on the proposed framing of information
needed to support climate change adaptation, increased resiliency, and
risk reduction described above for NCA5.
Finally, various appendices are planned to provide additional
background, context, and detail on the inputs to NCA5. Topics currently
planned for inclusion include report process details, legal mandates
and requirements, tools and technical inputs, and frequently asked
questions. Suggestions for other appendix topics are requested.
We seek public comment on all aspects of the anticipated scope and
content of this framework for NCA5, as described above.
Responses: Response to this Request for Comment is voluntary.
Respondents need not reply to all questions or topics. Responses may be
used by the U.S. Government for program planning on a non-attribution
basis. NOAA therefore requests that no business proprietary information
or copyrighted information be submitted in response to this Request for
Comment. Please note that the U.S. Government will not pay for response
preparation, or for the use of any information contained in the
response.
Dated: July 7, 2020.
David Holst,
Director Chief Financial Officer/CAO, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric
Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
[FR Doc. 2020-14904 Filed 7-9-20; 8:45 am]
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