ABSTRACT

In December 2019, scientists identified a novel Coronavirus (COVID-2019) that was associated with an outbreak of pneumonia in Wuhan, China and that was suspected of being zoonotic in origin. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a pandemic, and on March 13, 2020, U.S. President Donald Trump declared a national emergency. Because individuals can transmit the illness prior to exhibiting symptoms (i.e., an ?invisible threat?), and in the absence of a vaccine for protection, the severity of this crisis and the timing of containment in the United States is unknown. In the context of this uncertainty and ambiguity about the immediate future, the research team studies emotional (fear, worry, distress), cognitive (perceived risk), and behavioral (media use, health protective behaviors) responses to the COVID-19 outbreak and how these early responses shape outcomes over time. The scholars examine how widespread media coverage of the COVID-19 outbreak is associated with acute stress responses to the threat, its success (or failure) in affording people the information needed to understand the threat, and how cognitive and affective processes shape risk assessments, behavioral responses, and mental health outcomes. This project is unique in studying the effects of risk perceptions, health protective behaviors, and acute stress on adjustment as an ambiguous global health threat unfolds.

The research is a longitudinal study of 5,000 people from the AmeriSpeak panel, a probability-based nationally representative sample of U.S. households on whom ?baseline? mental and physical health data have been collected prior to the start of the COVID-19 threat in the U.S. Two surveys administered over the next year examine respondents? risk perceptions, fear, media use, health protective behaviors, and distress surrounding the outbreak. The sample is drawn using sample stratification to assure sample representativeness with respect to age, gender, race/ethnicity, and Census Region. For Wave 1, the drawn sample is randomly assigned to one of three nationally representative replicates (i.e., cohorts) that have non-overlapping data collection periods of 2 calendar weeks, for a total of a 6-week fielding period. Each cohort thus represents a representative sample whose interviews are generalizable to point-in-time survey estimates for the 2-week period to which the cohort is mapped. A second survey is fielded on the Wave 1 sample within the next year, as the crisis unfolds (or abates).

Overall, this study assesses risk perceptions, media use, acute stress, social norms, self- and response-efficacy, and protective behaviors at the start of an ambiguous and deadly domestic threat on a large representative sample with existing pre-threat mental and physical health data. This provides a unique opportunity to examine national responses to an ongoing public health crisis as it unfolds, producing research with both theoretical and practical importance. The team has five specific aims: 1) Estimate COVID-19-related media exposure, COVID-19 risk perceptions, trust in institutions managing (and communicating about) COVID-19, and behavioral and emotional responses to perceived COVID-19 threat; 2) Investigate how type (e.g., television, Twitter, online news), amount (e.g., total hours), and content (e.g., imagery) of COVID-19-related media coverage are associated with risk perceptions, and behavioral and emotional responses (e.g., acute stress, somatization, depression); 3) Examine how ambiguity of the COVID-19 threat and inconsistencies in official communications about this threat are associated with perceived risk, as well as emotional and behavioral responses; 4) Investigate whether prior exposure to individual (e.g., childhood violence) and collective (e.g., 9/11) stress are associated with COVID-19-related risk perceptions and behavioral and emotional responses to the COVID-19 threat; and 5) Contrast key theories of health behavior in an epidemiological sample responding to a current and evolving threat. We expect that information collected in this research will advance future conceptual work on coping with highly stressful events by furthering our understanding of the extent to which traditional and non-traditional media coverage of the Coronavirus outbreak may be affecting individuals? risk perceptions and acute stress responses to it, providing information to facilitate early identification of individuals at risk for subsequent difficulties following potential public health crises, and explicitly integrating the stress and coping literature with the literature on risk analysis and perception.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

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